We all knew it was coming, but here it is nonetheless: the final gambling weekend of the year. The UFC brings 2022 to a close with a Fight Night card back at the APEX, headlined by a middleweight clash between Jared Cannonier and Sean Strickland and featuring 13 other quality fights. It’s a pretty good way to wrap things up, so let’s jump right into the final bets of 2022.
As always, all odds are courtesy of our friends at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images
Bobby Green, +130
I feel like I’ve said this a lot lately, but I do not understand why this line is here. Don’t get me wrong, I like Drew Dober, but Green is as skilled and crafty a veteran as it gets, and this fight lines up very well for him. Green, a better striker than Dober with superior defense and work rates, is also more willing to grapple. Bobby Green has lost by being outworked, out-wrestled or robbed by better athletes in the past. Dober is unlikely to be that person.
Said Nurmagomedov, +100
When was the last time someone named Nurmagomedov was plus money?
Said may not be related to Khabib Nurmagomedov, but the Dagestani is still a tremendously talented fighter, and I think he has some clear advantages against Saidyokub Kakhramonov. Nurmagomedov, for one, is more skilled and a better striker. Nurmagomedov, on the other hand, is an excellent defender of takedowns. Raoni Barcelos managed to get some takedowns during their fight but was unable control Nurmagomedov over long periods of time. I expect the same for Kakhramonov. I like a value play here.
Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC
Jared Cannonier by KO/TKO/DQ, +275
This fight is close to a pick’em, and I get why. Cannonier is certainly the more dangerous striker, but Strickland is fairly durable, and he puts on a pace that Cannonier is not going to be able to keep up with if he can’t find the finish. Fortunately for Cannonier, finding the finish is where he thrives. 12 of Cannonier’s 15 career wins come by stoppage, and given that Strickland got brutally knocked out in July, Cannonier has a decent shot to do so as well.
Arman Tsarukyan by Decision, +130
Tsarukyan is a very important fighter for me. At only 26 years old, I would be very surprised if he never fought for a lightweight title, but he has his hands full with Damir Ismagulov. Ismagulov has exceptional takedown defense and a wicked jab, both of which figure to pose issues for Tsarukyan. That being said, I still favor the grappling, athleticism, and pace of Tsarukyan to simply outwork Ismagulov over 15 minutes.
Cody Brundage/Michal Oleksiejczuk UNDER 1. 5 Rounds, -135
These men don’t get paid an hour. They’re all about the business, and when they get down, business is a-booming. In his four UFC (and Contender Series) fights, Brundage has an average fight time of 6:14, while Oleksiejczuk takes his time a little more at 7:07. Both of those numbers, as you can see, fall below the 7:30 threshold that the 1. 5 represents, which is why we are on this play. I’m expecting Oleksiejczuk will come out and toss Brundage the kitchen sink until they both fall down.
Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC
Jake Matthews -280
I believe that we are at the brink of Jake Matthews’ breakout.
Matthews was a UFC fighter eight years ago. He has had a mixed run. However, last time out, he looked sensational against Andre Fialho, and it’s important to remember that he is still only 28 years old. Matthew Semelsberger is Matthew’s opponent. Matthews has an opponent that Matthews can play and be athletic with but who lacks defense. Matthews should have the ability to put Semelsberger on his feet and score takedowns, if necessary.
Sergey Morozov, -300
The simplest breakdown of this fight is that Morozov is good, and Journey Newsom is not. In the past six years, Morozov has only lost two two elite fighters, and then a fluke submission (to a very good fighter) in a bout he was dominating. Newsom cannot stop Morozov scoring takedowns at will. This is Morozov’s show.
Parlay these two bets together for -125 odds.
Photo by Alejandro Salazar/PxImages/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
If there’s one thing I’ve said repeatedly it’s that there’s nothing I enjoy more than a Gimmick Parlay, and No Bets Barred listener Mitch brought to my attention that we have a truly spectacular Gimmick Parlay opportunity this weekend.
Six fighters are competing at Xtreme Couture on Saturday. To close the year we have teamed them up to make one huge payout. Is this going to hit? Certainly not. It is not a bad idea. Absolutely. It is fun. Undeniably. We can shout out from the rooftops that we won the Nick)Sick Parlay if it strikes. What more can you want from a Long Shot?
Parlay Sean Strickland (-115), Amir Albazi (-410), Julian Erosa (-170), Cheyanne Vlismas (-190), Said Nurmagomedov (+100), and Manel Kape (-250) for +1478 odds.
With this being the final UFC event of 2022, that means our first year of doing this column is in the books, and I’ve got to be honest, it went great! With a standard one unit bet on every suggest play, we finished up 55. 55 units, and we hit three Long Shots! This is a great result by all measures. Looking back over it all, parlays were by far our biggest weak point, which makes sense since parlays are a mug’s game (doesn’t mean I’m going to stop, we’re in it for a good time).
Here’s hoping we finish the year on a high note, and that 2023 is just as profitable! Good luck, and gamble responsibly!
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Source: https://www.mmafighting.com/2022/12/16/23511086/ufc-vegas-66-gambling-preview-can-jared-cannonier-follow-alex-pereira-steps-and-ko-sean-strickland?rand=96749
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