Fresh off of UFC 276 and International Fight Week, the UFC’s 12-week run of events keeps right on rolling this Saturday with UFC Vegas 58, headlined by The Battle of the Rafaels, a lightweight contest between Rafael dos Anjos and Rafael Fiziev. Outside of the main event, there are 11 other fights on the card and while this event lacks name value, the fights are all competitive, which means the odds are pretty close. Let’s try and break those odds with weekend.
As always, all odds are courtesy of our friends at DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Rafael dos Anjos, +180
This is a bet that could backfire in a terrible way. Fiziev is one of the most exciting and violent prospects in the lightweight division and dos Anjos is pushing 38, yet I can’t help but feel that the style matchup here favors dos Anjos significantly. RDA’s losses against others who have out-grappled him are not his faults. Dos Anjos pressure style with takedowns and body kicks would be a great way to win against Fiziev. With the Apex cage, RDA is an underdog.
Cortney Casey, +145
This is a combo bet of fading Antonina Shevchenko and believing that Cortney Casey is better than her record shows. Casey has gotten bad decision luck in her career, losing three split decisions she should have won, and that’s held back the perception of her as a top-20 ish fighter. On the other side of that, because she shares a last name with the greatest female fighter alive, Antonina Shevchenko is consistently overvalued as a competitor. If this goes to the ground, Shevchenko is the better grappler, but on the feet, Casey can simply outwork her to a decision.
Kennedy Nzechukwu, -140
In the prelims, Nzechukwu will face Karl Roberson. This fight could be the highlight of the evening. Nzechukwu is a behemoth of a man, even at light heavyweight, and he appears to be developing into a legitimately excellent fighter. Roberson, on the other hand, is a former middleweight who has a background in kickboxing and has struggled when taken down. Consider Nzechukwu’s physicality. He can either score takedowns or use his huge reach to throw hammers at the feet. Either way, I believe Nzechukwu has a great chance to put a stop to his two-fight losing streak.
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Caio Borralho to Win By KO/TKO/DQ/Decision, +120
Borralho is a favorite of the UFC and it’s not hard to understand why. This is Barralho’s second fight in the organization and it’s also his second co-main event. The Brazilian prospect is a competent striker and a sneaky grappler, but it’s his dangerous ground game that figures to be a problem for Armen Petrosyan. Petrosyan, a skilled kickboxer, is also a strong prospect. However, he struggled to deal with Gregory Rodrigues’ grappling style. Borralho needs to be more dedicated to this aspect of the sport. Although a submission seems most likely, Borralho is known for finishing opponents with strikes from the mount. So, an Inside the Distance prop might be the best play.
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
Rafael Dos Anjos/Rafael Fiziev Over 2. 5 Rounds, -300
As noted above, I like dos Anjos to get his hand raised by virtue of his pressuring style and his grinding grappling. That means this fight is going to take some time, and while a finish isn’t impossible, a finish in the first half seems incredibly unlikely.
Cynthia Calvillo/Nina Nunes Over 2. 5 Rounds, -230
*I don’t know how the fight will go but I think it will go to decision. Calvillo has not finished an opponent since 2018 and Nunes hasn’t done it since 2017. Both women are durable, so factoring that all in, I like this as a parlay piece.
Parlay these two bets together for -110 odds.
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
Chase Sherman to Win By KO/TKO in Round 2, +1000
They say that the definition of crazy is doing the same thing over again and expecting different results. Well, I guess I’m crazy because I am once again backing Chase Sherman to win a UFC fight. Betting on bad heavyweight MMA is a bad idea, but I think Sherman is a slightly better fighter than Jared Vanderaa, and so I’m going to take this flyer on him. Two of his three UFC wins were by second round TKO, and two of Vanderaa’s previous four losses were by second-round TKO. Although it isn’t much, I have what I need for the week.
We had a marginally losing week last week, taking some shots on underdogs that didn’t pan out, but that’s going to happen occasionally. This week, I’ll be honest, I feel less confident than in many weeks, what with the International Fight Week hangover, but still going to take some swings and see what sticks.
As always, make sure you check out the No Bets Barred podcast this week, enjoy the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!
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