It’s not a stretch at all to say that we are witnessing a pivotal moment for a handful of future UFC title contenders — and possibly champions — on Saturday.
By now, the narrative surrounding the UFC Vegas 57 main event has shifted from it being a hardcore fan’s delight to a must-see matchup of two can’t-miss lightweight killers. Arman Tsarukyan, still four months shy of his 26th birthday, has been on a tear since debuting in the promotion with hard-fought decision loss to likely No. 1 contender Islam Makhachev. Mateusz Gamrot, on the other hand, has a record of three wins and brings the mystery of being a KSW two-division champion to the fight.
Neither man will be derailed by a defeat (if anything, how the losing fighter rebounds will give us an even better gauge of their future prospects), but the winner will definitely take a jump up the rankings, possibly into the top 10 of one of MMA’s deepest divisions. Tsarukyan is currently tied with Gamrot at No. 11 at lightweight in MMA Fighting’s Global Rankings.
Also poised to jump up the rankings with a win is the undefeated Shavkat Rakhmonov. The Kazakh sensation has finished all 15 of his pro fights, including his first three UFC outings, and he gets a step up in competition tonight when he takes on perennial welterweight contender Neil Magny. Magny’s convincing victory would see him move out of the tie for No. 13 spot and possibly into the top 10, while Magny is fighting to hold onto his No. 12 spot for the most part.
Oh, that and getting win No. 20 to jump ahead of Georges St-Pierre for the most wins at 170 pounds in UFC history.
Don’t forget that Umar Nurmagomedov is also fighting. Although Nurmagomedov faces a tough test in Nate Maness who has yet to experience defeat, all indications point to Nurmagomedov living up his fame and becoming the bantamweight champion that everyone wants to fight.
In other main card action, heavyweights Josh Parisian and Alan Baudot meet in a bout that feels like it should be happening at UFC Paris (h/t Jed Meshew), submission specialist Thiago Moises meets Christos Giagos in a lightweight contest, and “The Action Man” Chris Curtis looks to go 3-0 in the UFC when he fights Brazilian jiu-jitsu ace Rodolfo Vieira in a middleweight clash of styles.
What: UFC Vegas 57
Where : UFC APEX Las Vegas
When: Saturday, June 25. The six-fight preliminary card begins at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2 and ESPN+, followed by a six-fight main card at 10 p.m. on ESPN and ESPN+.
Regardless of what happens on Saturday, Arman Tatarukyan or Matesuz Gamrot will be — according to the cool kids — as real and authentic as they get.
It feels as if we are getting a championship fight on pay-per view a few years ahead of schedule. How else to describe the privilege of watching an unbelievable blue chip project like Tsarukyan go up against Gamrot, a fighter that has already proven he can win high level title fights? The matchmakers could have held off on this one and waited to see both men fulfill their potential more before pairing them off. I’m glad they didn’t.
We might one day see this fight the same way as Georges St Pierre and B.J. Penn, Jon Jones’ statement performance against Ryan Bader, and Dustin Poirier and Max Holloway clashing in their early 20s. The level of talent is that high and it’s not hyperbole at all to suggest that Tsarukyan and/or Gamrot could hold UFC gold some day.
They have to get through one another first and on this day I’m favoring Tsarukyan. Just. He has great size for the division, an all-world takedown game, and he is fast on his feet. Gamrot has reach, power, strength in both his hands, plus-athleticism and aggressive submission games. This feels as if a matchup neither man could win if it was rerun 100 times.
So it’s the quickness and relative youth of Tsarukyan that has me leaning in his direction. I fully expect the fight to go the full five rounds and for both competitors to have their moments, showing off their offensive brilliance and toughness all at once. Tsarukyan will spend more time at the top and on offense, while Gamrot is being stifled by his attempts to takedown him, leading to a convincing win.
Pick: Tsarukyan
I’m not confident that Neil Magny can drag Shavkat Rakhmonov into deep waters.
Magny will have an advantage if Magny goes there. Rakhmonov is concerned because the veteran welterweight can push his opponents’ pace for five rounds while exposing gas tanks. We just don’t know how Rakhmonov will perform late in the game as he’s only gone to a third round once. He could be bouncing around like Clay Guida or be completely stuck in the mud.
Magny can be vulnerable during the first stages of fights, and Rakhmonov is able to overcome this. He’s 15-0 with 15 finishes for a reason. As much as I respect Magny and believe that he is truly the right opponent to gauge Rakhmonov’s potential, I predict that he won’t be able to get out of the way of this particular hype train.
He will be defeated by Rakhmonov, get him off the ground early and give him no time to get to his feet. Magny will be stunned when he catches him with a choke that ends the fight.
Pick: Rakhmonov
This is an odd choice for the main card.
I understand the desire to have a heavyweight bout on the UFC for the knockout/chaos potential. However, Josh Parisian (or Alan Baudot) have not been exactly finishing machines in UFC. They have had zero finishes in their six UFC appearances combined. That’s probably more due to who they’ve been matched up with, so there’s reason for optimism that they’ll just get at it once the bell rings and this turns into The Bout to Knock the Other Guy Out.
We could be in for some big-man striking fun if we don’t. Both can be entertaining to see when there is enough room. Parisian might consider combining the martial arts with his weight advantage in order to intimidate Baudot. Any prolonged grappling will take the wind out of Baudot’s sales and make him easier to deal with in the later rounds.
Let’s all hope that one of these fighters will break the recent trend and return to their finishing moves that got them onto the UFC radar. Parisian knockout.
Pick: Parisian
Thiago Moises is so bad at submission that he hasn’t been able to have the matchups that would allow him style on the ground. Respectfully, Christos Giagos could be that matchup.
Giagos, who is an old-school wrestler, has pop. This formula can get you far, but it is frequently thwarted by Brazilian jiu jitsu monsters such as Moises. In this instance, Giagos may want to eschew his usual takedowns in favor of sprawling and brawling. Not that Moises isn’t comfortable throwing hands. Nobody is going to mistake him for Petr Yan in there, but Moises enjoys a good scrap, even if sticking to his base will probably serve him better in the long run.
I always assume these grappling men will find the right solution and get on with their business of taking necks. (I’m looking at you, Gregory Rodrigues!) ), so my prediction is that Moises will mess around on the feet some before winning a ground battle. He might shoot in, or he may take advantage of an unwise Giagos takedown. But I’d love Moises to do his best work and win a submission here.
Pick: Moises
Nate Maness enters this bout as one of the biggest underdogs in a non-title fight in recent memory (around +650 according to DraftKings), which is a tad absurd when you realize Umar Nurmagomedov is making just his third UFC appearance and Maness himself is 3-0 in the UFC against good competition.
That said, I understand the urge to cram into the Nurmagomedov bandwagon. In just over five years as a pro, he’s shown that he is one of the most technically sound fighters in the bantamweight division, maybe in any division. Don’t let Nurmagomedov’s flashy kicks fool you, he fires them with purpose and he’s rarely off-balance. In the event that his opponent thinks he’s figured out his timing, Nurmagomedov can always go to his wrestling, as you’d expect given his background.
One factor to watch for in this matchup is the gap in striking defense. Maness, on the other hand, is more inclined to take one-to-land and control distance. Nurmagomedov excels at getting in and out of fights and maintains control with all of them. If Maness can force the action and get inside to box up Nurmagomedov, he could find an edge, but that’s a big if because that puts you in grappling range and as we just mentioned, you never want to be in that range with a Nurmagomedov.
In the past, I’ve warned not to underestimate Nurmagomedov’s more experienced opponents; after tonight, I’m warning everyone not to underestimate Nurmagomedov’s chances of becoming the best bantamweight in the world.
Pick: Nurmagomedov
” The Action Man” does not tap.
True, Chris Curtis has never faced a grappler the caliber of Rodolfo Vieira. Since making the move to MMA in 2017, the decorated Brazilian jiu-jitsu champion has lived up to the billing, subbing fools left and right so long as his gas tank holds up. Simply put, Vieira is as good as any active fighter today if we’re talking straight submission skills.
A strict standup bout would not be a good idea for Vieira. Curtis would have a difficult time with a long grappling match. The outcome of this fight will depend on the person who is able to get it there. Here, Curtis is my favorite. Curtis has so many more years of experience in the mix of martial arts. He can defend takedowns against any elite wrestlers and he is able to avoid submissions.
None of that bodes well for Vieira, who I still like as a future top 10 contender based on his one elite skill, it’s just that someone as experienced as Curtis knows all the tricks that Vieira will employ to take him down. Curtis will keep Vieira on his feet, and he’ll win the second round.
Pick: Curtis
Preliminaries
Tafon Nchukwi def. Carlos Ulberg
T.J. Brown def. Shayilan Nuerdanbieke
Sergey Morozov def. Raulian Paiva
Cody Durden def. JP Buys
Mario Bautista def. Brian Kelleher
Vanessa Demopoulos def. Jinh Yu Yu Frey
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