Alexander Volkov and Jairzinho Rozenstruik probably aren’t competing for the heavyweight title anytime soon, but here’s what is on the line for both fighters Saturday: the loser will see consecutive losses in the octagon for the first time.
That should surprise you given that the UFC Vegas 56 headliners have been with the promotion for some time (Volkov since 2016, Rozenstruik since 2019) and consistently faced top competition. But in their combined 21 UFC appearances, neither fighter has ever been on a losing streak. Volkov has two losses in his career, while Rozenstruik never loses back-to-back bouts.
Something has to give tonight with Volkov coming off of a first-round submission loss to Tom Aspinall and Rozenstruik having been a recent victim of Curtis Blaydes’ indomitable wrestling game. Will the stakes bring out the best in both men or will we see a more cautious approach with a dubious distinction looming?
In the co-main featherweight event Dan Ige will attempt to defeat Movsar Evloev. The Russian fighter is 15-0 with five wins to start his UFC career and he’s looked like the real deal as far as being a threat to someday challenge for a world title.
Ige represents Evloev’s highest ranked opponent yet and if Evloev puts on an impressive performance against him, he could become the leader of a pack of hungry featherweight contenders.
In other main card action, The Ultimate Fighter 27 champion Michael Trizano welcomes Contender Series signing Lucas Almeida to the UFC in a featherweight bout, flyweight finisher Karine Silva makes her UFC debut against Poliana Botelho, Ode Osbourne takes on Zarrukh Adashev in a flyweight bout, and light heavyweight Alonzo Menifield fights twice-delayed debutant Askar Mozharov.
What: UFC Vegas 56
Where: UFC APEX in Las Vegas
When: Saturday, June 4. The entire event airs on ESPN+, with the eight-fight preliminary card beginning at 1 p.m. ET, followed by a six-fight main card at 4 p.m. ET.
(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in MMA Fighting Global Rankings)
Conventional wisdom says this fight will be technical, plodding, and heavyweight. Let’s just have fun! First round knockout. Who is this for?
Because of his better-rounded game and his larger reach and reach, as well as the experience he brings, Alexander Volkov is the obvious favorite. Though they have a few notable shared opponents (Alistair Overeem, Curtis Blaydes, Ciryl Gane), Volkov has been mixing the martial arts a lot longer than Jairzinho Rozenstruik has so he just has a more fully stocked library to pull from. This will almost certainly result in Volkov winning if it goes to a final decision.
In our ideal scenario, we get the Rozenstruik of days past. The version that once knocked out consecutive UFC opponents in a combined 38 seconds. Overeem was defeated by the dangerous striker who needed only one attack to win. Because in a pure striking battle, Rozenstruik is more than a match for Volkov and that’s exactly how this main event should unfold.
Volkov will surely attempt to make use of takedowns and clinch work to slow Rozenstruik, but if Rozenstruik can manage distance and time his counters right, he’s going to be a handful to approach. As I mentioned at the top I chose Jairzinho in order to get a fast finish. This is not because I want to lose the fight, but for fun.
Pick: Rozenstruik
When this fight is over, we’ll be talking even more about Movsar Evloev’s championship prospects and it won’t be because of any shortcomings on Dan Ige’s part.
Ige has become the consummate top 10 gatekeeper. He’s difficult to finish, is a threat on the feet and on the ground, and he competes from bell to bell every time he goes out there. He’s tough to beat against one the most skilled fighters in featherweight.
Make no mistake, that’s what Evloev is. There’s certainly room for the 28-year-old to grow, but he already has the tools to be a top 5-ranked fighter and will likely reach those heights by early 2023 the latest. He’s a plus athlete with sharp striking and fantastic wrestling, as winning a formula as you can get in MMA.
Although Evloev will not be the first to defeat Ige, he will make a big statement with his dominant victory.
Pick: Evloev
Michael Trizano is a long and rangy featherweight who typically focuses on controlling distance and scoring from range, so it will be interesting to see how he deals with an opponent in Lucas Almeida with similar dimensions and a more aggressive approach.
Almeida is a forward-thinking, hard throwing runner. He’s constantly pursuing a finish and I expect him to employ that strategy as he did on his Contender Series appearance last September. It didn’t work out for him then, but it could be just the right approach to beat Trizano. Trizano has not shown the extra effort to punish his opponent. That’s definitely not a problem for Almeida.
On the flip side, Trizano’s more steady style will benefit him if Almeida tires or loses his composure. Trizano is the superior boxer. I am also curious as to whether he will add wrestling to disrupt Almeida’s rhythm.
Give me Almeida by club and sub in the first or second round, working under the assumption that Almeida puts his best foot forward on Saturday.
Pick: Almeida
Poliana Botelho is a fun fighter to see when she strikes well. Karine Silva will indulge her for a few fights. Silva is the best way to win this fight.
Silva has more than her fair share of knockouts so it’s not as if she’s afraid to stand and scrap, but Botelho has the more sophisticated Muay thai game. A standup battle favors here even if she isn’t able to put Silva down for the count. Where Botelho will be in trouble is if she messes around in the grappling too much because Silva has a serious submission game.
It’s something I can see Botelho having to play. Whether it’s Silva pulling guard, or winning a scramble in the final game, the result will be the exact same: Botelho’s third consecutive loss.
Pick: Silva
I’m a believer that Zarrukh Adashev turned a corner in his most recent win over Ryan Benoit. Former Bellator fighter, Adashev joined UFC after being praised for his elite kickboxing abilities. He was disappointed in the results of his two previous appearances but he delivered the goods with his third fight at the can.
After fighting Benoit, Sumudaerji, and Tyson Nam, Adashev has another stiff test in the form of Ode Osbourne. “The Jamaican Sensation” has seen uneven results in the UFC (though losses to Manel Kape and Brian Kelleher are nothing to be ashamed of), but remains an intriguing talent especially with his recent drop down to 125 pounds. Similar to the main event, if this were just about who’s more versatile, then Osbourne gets the edge, but since I believe Adashev can keep the fight where he needs it to be than I have him striking his way to a win.
Osbourne must navigate Adashev’s sneaky power and some bad leg kicks if he is to avoid this upset. While I believe he can do it, I need Osbourne to show me more consistency.
Abbashev through decision.
Pick: Adashev
Let me give you a brief summary of Askar Mozharov’s drama :
So what does Mozharov actually bring to the cage? He’s got a solid physique, for sure, and while he may have faced lackluster competition, he has legitimate speed in his hands and feet. Whether he can actually land against a UFC-level fighter is another question entirely.
Alonzo Menifield in the first round knockout.
Pick: Menifield
Preliminaries
Karolina Kowalkiewicz def. Felice Herrig
Alex da Silva def. Joe Solecki
Damon Jackson def. Daniel Argueta
Niklas Stolze def. Benoit Saint Denis
Johnny Munoz def. Tony Gravely
Jeff Molina def. Zhalgas Zhumagulov
Rinat Fakhretdinov def. Andreas Michailidis
Erin Blanchfield (13) def. JJ Aldrich
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