This weekend we have a ton of MMA action on the docket with Bellator offering a Friday and Saturday doubleheader featuring three title fights, two bantamweight grand prix bouts, two grand prix qualifier bouts and a host of other action. Also on Saturday, the UFC continues its current streak of events with UFC Vegas 52. It’s a packed card with many fights. Let’s take a look at the top bets.
All odds are courtesy of our friends at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Photo by Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC
Liz Carmouche, +140
In the main event of Bellator 278, Carmouche will challenge Juliana Velasquez for the flyweight title, and she has a great chance to finally win a championship belt. Although Velasquez has an unbeaten record as a judoka, she is still a little underwhelming. Velasquez’s ability to grapple and strike has carried her through her career thus far, but Carmouche is equally as well-rounded and a much more assertive fighter. In all aspects, Carmouche should be considered as good or even better than Velasquez and I believe she deserves to win this fight.
Yancy Medeiros, +230
Meanwhile at Bellator 279, former UFC lightweight Yancy Medeiros takes on two-time Bellator featherweight title challenger Emmanuel Sanchez in a lightweight contest. Both men are riding sizable losing streaks but each has been losing to top competition. Medeiros, being naturally larger than the other men, will get a significant boost from Hawaii fighting. Given that, I love the underdog value here.
Claudio Puelles, -110
Over at UFC Vegas 52, in the co-main event Puelles looks to keep his current winning streak alive when he faces Clay Guida in the co-main event. Guida is 40 years old and at this point he’s getting by on his guile and cardio, but Puelles is bigger, younger, faster, and pretty well-rounded. Fade the old veteran in favor of the young prospect.
Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC
Jessica Andrade by KO/TKO, +175
Andrade, a natural force of nature, has suffered countless career defeats at bantamweight against former or current champions. Andrade is currently the second-best flyweight in the world, behind only the top pound-for-pound woman in the sport, and returning to the strawweight division is only going to make her that much more dangerous. Lemos is an excellent fighter. But, With five rounds left, Andrade will be finished.
Lando Vannata vs. Charles Jourdain Goes To Decision, -165
This is going to be a very exciting and striking fight, but the men should both survive. History is proving that they are resilient. Of the combined 18 UFC fights between Vannata and Jourdain, only 6 of them have ended in a finish. At that rate, this line should be -200, so you’re getting value.
Lando Vannata vs. Charles Jourdain ends in Split or Majority Decision, +475
Similar to the above, four of Vannata and Jourdain’s combined 18 UFC fights have ended in split decisions. That’s 22 percent, which implies a line of +350. Split decisions can be difficult to predict but the histories of each man suggest that there is still some value.
Montana De La Rose by Submission, +600
Also on the main card of UFC Vegas 52, De La Rosa takes on fellow prospect Maycee Barber. Barber is the more well-known of the two, given her propensity to espouse her own greatness, but De La Rosa might be the better fighter. While both have weaknesses, De La Rosa has the edge. If she manages to score a few takedowns, it could prove enough for her to win the fight.
Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images
Cris Cyborg over Arlene Blencowe, -900
We already saw this fight 18 months ago and it went exactly as everyone thought it would. The only interesting wrinkle was that Cyborg won by submission instead of her usual KO. There is absolutely no reason for anyone to think things will go differently this time, and the fact that Cyborg isn’t the biggest favorite on the weekend is categorically insane.
Raufeon Stots over Juan Archuleta (Bellator 279), -255
Archuleta is the multiple-time D-II national champion wrestling champ and Stots has had problems with fighters that can control exactly where the action happens. Furthermore, Archuleta’s most recent fight was a loss to Stots’ friend and teammate Sergio Pettis, meaning Stots should be well-prepared for what the one-time bantamweight champion brings to the cage.
Kyoji Horiguchi over Patchy Mix (Bellator 279), -225
Horiguchi has had an up-and-down run recently, but Mix should provide him a good opportunity to get back on track. Mix will have the advantage as a strong wrestler, although Horiguchi has an edge everywhere. Add in that this is five rounds and Mix has had issues sustaining his pace into the later rounds and Horiguchi should get his hand raised, one way or the other.
Parlay these three bets together for +123 odds.
Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC
Parlay Chase Sherman and Mike Jackson, +7100
You want a long shot? Well, it doesn’t get much longer than this. The two biggest underdogs on the UFC card parlayed together will pay out a tidy 71-to-1. And I honestly believe that line has value. Alexander Romanov is an undefeated prospect, but he does rely heavily on his grappling, and for Sherman’s many flaws, he doesn’t give up too many takedowns. And Mike Jackson is — well, he’s Mike Jackson, but Dean Barry isn’t some world-beater. There is no sane world where he should be a -1125 favorite. I think both underdogs have a little bit of value to them and the implied probability for this parlay hitting is 1. 4 percent. If they held this event 100 times, it feels like the two upsets happen more than once. Let’s see what happens.
After taking a week off, we’re back and looking to rebound from a painful UFC 273. Aljamain Sterling really killed us (and everyone else), but fortunately we have a lot of opportunity to get back on track this weekend.
Good luck y’all, and gamble responsibly!
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