The UFC kicks off February with a card that has some sneaky appeal if you look at it in the right light.
Saturday’s UFC Vegas 47 main event shouldn’t need much selling as two compelling middleweight contenders have been booked to go five rounds in a classic clash of styles. Jack Hermansson — No. 8 in MMA Fighting’s Global Rankings — brings a fierce grappling game to the octagon while Sean Strickland (9) has proven to be one of the best strikers at 185 pounds since moving up a weight class. They both want to remain in contention in an active division. Despite Strickland’s unfiltered personality, there is plenty to be excited about what will happen inside UFC APEX.
Two more key middleweight bouts lie ahead with Israel Adesanya defending his UFC title in a rematch with Robert Whittaker at UFC 271 next week and top contenders Derek Brunson and Jared Cannonier squaring off at that same show, so the winner of this weekend’s headliner will have a good idea of what lies ahead of them on their own championship path.
In other main card action, Punahele Soriano meets Nick Maximov in another striker vs. grappler matchup, welterweight up-and-comers Shavkat Rakhmonov and Carlston Harris face off, Sam Alvey looks to stop a seven-fight winless skid as he takes on short-notice replacement Brendan Allen in a light heavyweight bout, Tresean Gore meets Bryan Battle in a re-booking of the Ultimate Fighter 29 middleweight tournament final, and Julian Erosa fights Steven Peterson in a 149-pound catchweight bout after Peterson badly missed the featherweight limit.
What: UFC Vegas 47
Where: UFC APEX in Las Vegas
When: Saturday, Feb. 5. The seven-fight preliminary card begins on ESPN+ at 4 p.m. ET, followed by a six-fight main card on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET.
(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in MMA Fighting Global Rankings)
Jack Hermansson has all the tools to pick up a fast finish in this one. Although this is a matchup between a striker and a grappler, Hermansson has the ability to trade confidently and Sean Strickland doesn’t look dead on the ground. Both have enough versatility to keep up with the strengths of the other.
In a five-round fight, you have to lean towards Strickland. He has a deep gas tank and once he gets going going on the feet, he’s difficult to slow down. Strickland is a great thrower, with a lot of accuracy and volume. He also pays attention to his opponents’ weapons. Don’t let his reckless attitude fool you, when it comes to the standup game, Strickland is as disciplined as they come.
Any prolonged instances of ground fighting will favor Hermansson, but I see Strickland surviving those moments before taking the fight back to where he wants it. As foolish as it is to count out Hermansson, I just can’t see him dictating the action in this one. It will go the distance and Strickland takes a clear decision.
Pick: Strickland
Is this an echo? Guess what? We have another grappler vs. striker matchup, and it is more dramatic than the main event.
Puna Soriano throws bombs. Although it’s an overstated and cliché description of Puna Soriano’s fighting style, the point is not hard to remember. Puna. Soriano. Throws. BOMBS. BOMBS. He is skilled in technique but his right side is locked up and loaded.
On the other side of this matchup is the BJJ-minded Nick Maximov. He’s unrefined on the feet and one has to be concerned about whether he has enough striking to set up his takedowns. Maximov has not had to worry about it so far. However, Soriano’s strength combined with athleticism may cause Maximov some problems.
If Maximov gets out of the first round, he should be able to grind out a win or even submit Soriano. This is a huge possibility, however, as Soriano will be looking to win this fight early. I haven’t seen enough of Maximov yet to pick him for the upset here, so I like Soriano to hurt him early and finish in the first or second round.
Pick: Soriano
Excellent matchmaking. We should treat this match as a game of chess between the two UFC welterweights who have shown great success in UFC fights.
Shavkat Rakhinov will be more open to taking the initiative here while Carlston Harris has a higher likelihood of initiating it. Shavkat Rahmonov, on the other hand, is more likely not to get into a hurry and then explode for a fight or takedown. Both men know how close they are to advancing into a top 15 spot, so you can bet they’ll be cautious early on. Were this at a packed venue as opposed to the comfy confines of the UFC APEX, you might even hear a smattering of boos.
But once they make their move, the intensity will quickly go to 11. Harris is able to counter Rakhmonov’s explosive combinations with his quick counter punches. Harris is a skilled submission player, while Rakhmonov excels in the top position. They’re evenly matched in several areas.
Harris is one of the more intriguing upset picks on the night, so I don’t blame anyone who likes the Guyanese fighter to hand Rakhmonov his first loss. Rakhmonov still wins, I think. He beat Harris with his wrestling and then found a submission late.
Pick: Rakhmonov
Is Brendan Allen an ultimate opportunist or is he?
With regard to Sam Alvey: Alvey lost to Phil Hawes, his opponent originally set for Alvey. The matchmakers began searching for an alternate. You can see that Allen saw this opportunity as a chance to rebound from Chris Curtis’ December defeat. After all, Alvey hasn’t won a fight since June 2018 and Allen should be favored to extend Alvey’s winless streak to eight, a number that would tie Alvey with B.J. Penn’s dubious UFC futility record.
They say you shouldn’t count out a man with nothing to lose and a lot to prove though, so don’t start shoving Alvey out the door just yet. He’s a durable fighter with a tricky style that always seems to bring out the worst in his opponents, plus he’s always had a strong left hand even if recent results have been inconclusive. We might see something new in Alvey with his back against the wall.
He doesn’t possess the flexibility of Allen. Allen is a young prospect that can be comfortable both on the ground and on the floor. Allen has a big advantage on the ground and that’s where I expect this fight to take place for as long as it lasts. Allen will likely trade punches and tussle with Alvey, before taking him to the ground. This would set up the fight-ending submission at the end of the first round.
Pick: Allen
Tresean Gore showed a ton of potential in his two TUF 29 appearances, so I can understand why some viewers considered him to be the uncrowned king of the season. He was popularly chosen to defeat Bryan Battle before he suffered a knee injury.
We should put some respect on Battle’s name though. He outclassed Gilbert Urbina to win the show (in fairness, Gore also finished Urbina in the semifinals) and he has an experience edge that shouldn’t be overlooked. As talented as Gore is, he hasn’t been in the, er, battles that Battle has been in yet.
A key for Battle will be controlling range and using his length to frustrate Gore because if Gore can get his hands going, it will be a short night for Battle. Battle must also be aware of his Qs and Ps while grappling, as Gore is a serious wrestler. Gore could also tire out if he makes a few failed attempts.
I see Battle outlasting Gore after a competitive first round and out-grappling him for a submission win in the second.
Pick: Battle
It’s unfortunate that Steven Peterson arrived three pounds heavier than he should have, as this would make him a strong candidate for Fight of the Night. It’s a great piece of matchmaking between two featherweights who are always bonus hunting.
Julian Erosa has the edge in finishing ability and he remains one of the 145-pound divisions more underappreciated fighters. All he does is take on tough fighters and hunt for finishes, which will be tough to find against the hardy Peterson. It won’t be for lack of trying, but Erosa will probably have to go the distance to get the win here.
One of Erosa’s best attributes is how well he uses his reach. He attacks from awkward angles while somehow also generating solid power, making him difficult to deal with even if you’re an aggressive fighter like Peterson. It is not the same thing to want to press Erosa, but to actually do so. Peterson will have his moments during the fight, but I expect Erosa to get the better of the majority of the exchanges.
Erosa poses a greater threat to the ground than Chase Hooper, and Hooper was successful in taking down Peterson on several occasions. If Erosa mixes in takedowns along with his wonky striking game, then a competitive decision will go his way.
Pick: Erosa
Preliminaries
Miles Johns def. John Castaneda
Hakeem Dawodu def. Michael Trizano
Chidi Njokuani def. Marc-Andre Barriault
Alexis Davis (15) def. Julija Stoliarenko
Jailton Almeida def. Danilo Marques
Jason Witt def. Philip Rowe
Denys Bondar def. Malcolm Gordon
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