The UFC is back with another Fight Night card this weekend, but this time, the show is on the road, bringing us UFC San Diego on Saturday night. In the main event. Marlon Vera takes on Dominick Cruz in a pivotal bantamweight scrap. Plus, there are 12 more fights, giving us plenty of chances to place our bets.
As always, all odds are courtesy of our friends at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC
Devin Clark +125
I’m still not entirely sure I love this bet, but I can’t seem to talk my brain out of it. On paper, it feels like Devin Clark should be the favorite over Azamat Murzakanov. Yes, Murzakanov has the gaudy 11-0 record, but he’s small for the light heavyweight division, and he’s overly reliant on his punching power to get the job done. Clark is larger, stronger, faster, more active and a more aggressive wrestler. Murzakanov has a sneaky, athletic style and can find a place for his right-hand leaping. But Clark has proven to be pretty durable, and I think he has more ways to win this one. I’m taking a shot on the value.
Yazmin Jauregui, -205
I never like to make bets on fighters making their UFC debuts, particularly when they are very young and their opponent is debuting as well. In this case, however, I will make an exception because Jauregui seems to be the best prospect. Jauregui is athletic, aggressive and has all the tools she needs. I wouldn’t call her game “refined,” but it’s more so than Iasmin Lucindo’s, and while Lucindo has more experience, Jauregui has beaten far better competition. I think she wins in her UFC debut.
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
Marlon Vera by Decision, +130
*While some people see the fight as a value for Cruz, I don’t think so. Dominick Cruz used to be a tremendous fighter once upon a while, but that is now over. He’s about to turn 37, and he’s had more knee surgeries than I can count. That’s a bad place to start for anyone in the combat sports world, especially at bantamweight.
Moreover, I think Cruz looked noticeably diminished in his previous two performances. Father time comes for us all, and I simply think that time is now for Cruz. Vera is more youthful, dynamic and more dangerous than Cruz. Cruz remains crafty, though, and he’s proven quite durable, so I think this will go the full 25 minutes.
Angela Hill by Decision, +350
This is a straight value play. Lupita Godinez is younger, more aggressive, and more powerful than Hill. Hill has proven tough to beat in this division. Although she only won one of her six previous bouts, should have won all three. This line could have been significantly closer if that was the case. Hill can defend takedowns well, but Godinez may have problems with her high volume and length. I think Hill is a very live underdog at straight odds, but given that eight of her 13 career wins have come by decision and Godinez has never been stopped, give me the added prop value instead.
Ode Osbourne/Tyson Nam Under 2. 5 Rounds, -125
If No Bets Barred has been a listener, you will know that there is a simple truth to MMA gambling. Flyweight unders never lose. We’ve been riding the Flyweight Under train for a few weeks now, and it continues to pay dividends. We will continue to follow the Flyweight Under train this weekend. It also doesn’t hurt that 13 of Osbourne’s 16 career fights have ended in under 2. 5 rounds, or that four of Nam’s past five wins have hit the under, as well.
These two guys are sure to swing, so someone needs to fall before the last horn.
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
Marlon Vera/Dominick Cruz Over 2. 5 Rounds, -360
As mentioned above, I think Dominick Cruz likely makes it the full 25 minutes against Vera, but I’m exceedingly confident he makes it past the 12:30 mark. If Cruz finishes Vera, it would really shock me. Cruz has never done this to “Chito .”
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Gerald Meerschaert/Bruno Silva Does Not Go The Distance, -360
Bruno Silva is a little too juiced to place a straight wager on, but he’s still overwhelmingly likely to knock out Gerald Meerschaert. Meerschaert can get takedowns, and tap Silva. This really does feel like only two possible outcomes here as 25 of Silva’s 29 career fights and 43 of Meerschaert’s 49 career fights have been stopped before the scorecards.
Angela Hill/Lupita Godinez Goes To Decision, -330
Eighteen of Angela Hill’s 25 career fights have gone to decision, including the past seven in a row. Eight of Godinez’s 10 career fights have done the same. Godinez has never been finished, and Hill has only been finished twice in her career. It would shock me if the judges didn’t decide to take this one.
Parlay these three bets together for +112 odds.
Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC
Angela Hill To Win By Split Or Majority Decision, +1200
With that being said, this Long Shot wager is a great bet. The fight will almost certainly go to decision. Angela Hill’s fights mean that things can turn out to be a bit crazy. Hill has gone to five split decision in her career and she’s only won one of those, despite probably deserving to win all of them. It’s a terrible record, but she may be due. My prediction is that Godinez will be able score takedowns, but Hill can outpace her on the feet. This opens up an entire world for Hill to win in split scorescard.
Another winning week in the books this past weekend! That’s back-to-back positive weekends for the squad, and we’re looking to make that three in a row as we head into UFC 278 next weekend.
For more information on betting, make sure to check out No Bets Barred . Until next week, enjoy the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!
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