Yair Rodriguez and Miesha Tate are in prime position to fight for a UFC title.
They just have to win.
Nothing is guaranteed in the UFC, but it sure feels like Rodriguez and Tate can cement themselves as the No. 1 contender in their respective divisions at UFC Long Island. Rodriguez seeks his first title shot, while Tate targets gold in a second division after holding the bantamweight title back in 2016.
Both have a tall task ahead of them, with Rodriguez having to take on two-time title challenger Brian Ortega in the main event and Tate opening up the main card against Lauren Murphy, who fought her way to a championship opportunity just 10 months ago. Ortega and Murphy are known for their grit and resilience, so if either Rodriguez or Tate do push their way to the front of the line on Saturday, a title shot will be well-earned.
In the main event, Michelle Waterson takes on Amanda Lemos at strawweight, while Li Jingliang, a welterweight veteran, looks to end Muslim Salikhov’s five-fight winning streak. Matt Schnell faces Sumudaerji, while Charles Jourdain, New York’s Shane Burgos, fights Charles Jourdain.
What is UFC Long Island HTML3_?
Where: UBS Arena in Elmont, N.Y.
When: Saturday, July 16. The six-fight preliminary card begins at 11 a.m. ET on ESPN and ESPN+, followed by a six-fight main card at 2 p.m. on ABC and ESPN+.
(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in MMA Fighting Global Rankings)
Yair Rodriguez has been chasing that big win for years now. Brian Ortega is the man to take him above the rest?
Still just 29, “El Pantera” has plenty of fights left in his future, so it’s not the end of the road if he loses to an elite welterweight like Ortega. Rodriguez has yet to achieve elite status in UFC, but there is a lot of support. Rodriguez is still slowed down and has much to prove against featherweight’s top fighters. He lost a competitive fight against Max Holloway, had to land maybe the greatest strike in combat sports history to steal a win from Chan Sung Jung, and was thoroughly dominated by Frankie Edgar (in fairness, the last example there happened five years ago). “The Korean Zombie” is Rodriguez’s best win, but who is the biggest name that he’s convincingly beat? Jeremy Stephens? B.J. Penn? Dan Hooker
None of that matters on Saturday, because what’s most important is that he is the best version of himself now. If he beats Ortega convincingly, his past shortcomings will feel even more distant than they already do. We know he has the striking to compete with anyone at 145 pounds and as improved as Ortega is in that department, Rodriguez beats him there. Rodriguez is faster, more versatile, and slightly larger than Ortega.
Ortega has lamented not being able to submit Alexander Volkanovski at UFC 266 despite having the champion in serious trouble on the ground, so I believe him when he says he’s put renewed focus on the jiu-jitsu skills that brought him to the dance. T-City will dominate any ground fights. Rodriguez’s takedown defense is solid outside the Edgar fight.
Ortega will most likely be able to take down Rodriguez using trips and scrambles. If he isn’t careful, a few failed attempts might cost him his gas tank. I see him taking Rodriguez down and doing enough damage to convincingly take a couple of rounds, with the other three up for grabs. Ortega will win, although it may be close.
Pick: Ortega
On paper, this matchup makes a lot of sense for the UFC from a promotional standpoint. Michelle Waterson is a solid draw and has been the main attraction at the UFC’s Fight Night events. Amanda Lemos, an emerging contender, has had a tough time in her last two fights but remains a threat to the strawweight division.
I hesitate to include Waterson here. Though Waterson has more in-cage mileage on her, she’s actually only 16 months older than Lemos. More importantly, she’s been fighting the best in her division the better part of the last decade while Lemos has just begun to step up in competition and her results have been mixed. Lemos narrowly sneaked past veteran Angela Hill and was then soundly defeated by a top 5 opponent in Jessica Andrade. There is no shame in these results. However, Lemos has never shown any respect for top competitors.
To some degree, you could say the same about Waterson, which is what makes this matchup so tricky. Waterson is the only UFC champion to lose, aside from Marina Rodriguez, long overdue, and Tecia Torres. That still means she has much more big-game experience.
From a style standpoint, you’d like to see Lemos return to the form that saw her record three first-round finishes in her five fights prior to Andrade. It’s not difficult to see her beating Waterson in round one. She is large and powerful for this division.
Waterson is extremely tough, and she hasn’t finished the five-year cycle in five years. I believe that Waterson will make it through this first round. Her methodical approach will frustrate Lemos, and she’ll begin to score points much like Hill against the Brazilian power puncher. Once it goes to the cards, it’s anyone’s guess, but you can tell what direction I’m leaning in.
Pick: Waterson
Li Jingliang is one of the more unpredictable fighters in the welterweight division. Always in the mix to have a number next to his name, Li shrugs off losses like rain on the skin and goes at whoever is next for him with genuine ferocity. Muslim Salikhov needs to be prepared, is what I’m saying.
Fortunately for Salikhov, he has just the style to deal with Li. “King of Kung Fu” makes great use of lateral movement and counters to control the standup, so if he stays patient, Li will give him openings to score. Li can overwhelm his opponents if he isn’t patient enough.
This is definitely the right matchup for Salikhov at this stage of his career as he’s beaten a couple of quality veterans in his past two outings following wins over three opponents who are no longer in the UFC. Although I am unsure about Li’s ground defense, Li isn’t the fighter who will put it to the test. The one that stands is Salikhov.
Salikhov via knockout.
Pick: Salikhov
* Cherish this moment. I don’t think we will see flyweights this long or as lanky in the Octagon again soon. Both standing 5-foot-8 and still somehow making the 125-pound cut, Matt Schnell and Sumudaerji look more like mantisweights than flyweights.
I’m curious as to who will attempt to close the distance first as both are effective from range. Sumudaerji is slightly more reachable and his standup approach to the task is more difficult, while Schnell can be a bit wild at times. In this instance, that might actually be to Schnell’s benefit. Sumudaerji isn’t yet in any funky fight and Schnell, a veteran, won’t be able to just stand by and watch. If he feels like Sumudaerji is outpointing him from distance, Schnell is going in.
It’s dangerous to live this way — appropriate given Schnell’s nickname — which could prove disastrous against a puncher like Sumudaerji. But Schnell is going to push through some early adversity here, land something that hurts Sumudaerji, and then submit him.
Pick: Schnell
It’s a guaranteed Fight of the Night. You can call it anything you want. This is an incredibly difficult fight to call.
Charles Jourdain and Shane Burgos are better than their swinging style would indicate. But we all know they are trying to put on an entertaining show. Burgos will gladly draw blood for the New York crowd. Jourdain has great counters though, so a quick start for Burgos could also spell a quick end for him.
I think that this is a matter of volume and damage. Therefore, the aggressive Burgos should win the race even though he may be a mess at the end. Judges are only human and when they hear the roar of the fans every time Burgos lands, those pencils are going to notch enough 10s in his favor to get the win.
Pick: Jourdain
Miesha Tate could lose it all if this happens.
If Tate defeats Lauren Murphy, she has a flyweight championship opportunity pretty much in the bag, with Valentina Shevchenko already eyeing Tate for a future title defense. If Tate loses on Saturday, it could signal a second retirement, as the former bantamweight champion’s main purpose for returning to competition after a near five-year hiatus was to test herself against the best once more. A 1-2 mark in her comeback run would make Tate’s climb back to title contention mighty steep.
So how does she do it? Tate’s wrestling is a major factor here. She will eventually beat Murphy if she holds Murphy off for most of the fight. Tate is a skilled scrambler, and Murphy can be beaten with ease. It will require a lot energy to get “Cupcake” off her feet.
Murphy has a chance on the feet. Murphy may not be an exceptional technical striker but she’s a skilled grinder who can take Tate down for at least three rounds.
I have to admit that Tate has been back since then. It’s made me question her ability to be sharp against those who’ve worked so hard while Tate was away. Her work ethic is unquestionable, but there’s only so much you can do to make up for lost time. Murphy made the best of that time and she outworked Tate to win Saturday’s race.
Pick: Murphy
Preliminaries
Punahele Soriano def. Dalcha Lungiambula
Ricky Simon def. Jack Shore
Herbert Burns def. Bill Algeo
Dustin Jacoby def. Da Un Jung
Dwight Grant def. Dustin Stoltzfus
Emily Ducote def. Jessica Penne
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