On Saturday, the UFC returns to London for their second event in The O2 this year, and once again, they are rolling out the red carpet for their biggest U.K. stars: Paddy Pimblett, Molly McCann, Paul Craig, Muhammad Mokaev, and Jai Herbert, all of whom are back for the UFC’s second trip to London in 2022, as well as Tom Aspinall, who takes on Curtis Blaydes in the main event. It’s a big weekend of fights, so let’s get to the bets.
As always, all odds are courtesy of our friends at DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Curtis Blaydes, +115
This week’s No Bets Barred ,, I chose to back Tom Aspinall because it was the most fun. While I stand firm to that opinion, the smart money is clearly with Curtis Blaydes in this fight. While Aspinall’s UFC debut has been spectacular, Blaydes, who brings the best skill set to the heavyweight division, is the greatest step-up in competition.
Some guys can wrestle a bit at heavyweight, but Blaydes is tremendous at it, and he makes a point of using it. Furthermore, Blaydes is a proven cardio machine, which is always a concern considering Aspinall has never even seen a third round. Lastly, and most important, however, athleticism in MMA is a cheat code, particularly in the heavyweight category. Aspinall has looked so good in his fights in part because he was simply a superior athlete to his opposition. This will not be the case. Blaydes is able to match him in athletics, but has been a difficult stylistic match for anyone. It’s huge if Aspinall is able to get past him. But, I have yet to believe that.
Chris Curtis, -110
Chris Curtis is stepping in for Jack Hermansson on short notice for the co-main. While this could pose a problem for some fighters, it’s not for Curtis. “Action Man” lives up to his name by seemingly fighting every other weekend, and indeed just faced Rodolfo Vieira less than a month ago. That fight is instructive for this one as is basically the same matchup.
Vieira and
Hermansson will want Curtis to fall so that they can show off their grappling skills. As the BJJJ World Champion has found, this is not an easy task. Curtis excels at keeping fights on the feet, having surrendered zero takedowns in his three UFC bouts despite facing decent wrestlers. Curtis should be able to do the same and let his more diverse and higher volume boxing game carry the day.
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
Paul Craig by Submission, +250
Why bet Paul Craig to win at +135 when you can bet him by Submission at +250? Volkan Oezdemir is the favourite in this fight. This may be due to his good takedown defense, as well as how hittable Craig was on the feet. But Oezdemir is not the greatest grappler in the world, and Craig has this uncanny knack for pulling victory from the jaws of defeat. Oezdemir can play it safe and win, but Oezdemir will make mistakes. I am taking a shot at Oezdemir’s chances.
Makwan Amirkhani by Submission, +330
Jonathan Pearce is the underdog in Amirkhani’s favor, but I believe there may be some value to him at these odds. The submission prop is more appealing. Pearce can be a little slow to start, as three of his four career defeats came in the first round. Amirkhani, however, is fast and efficient. “Mr. Finland storms out of the gate roaring, and tends not to finish his drill. Amirkhani is quick to get his grappling started and hits the takedowns quickly. This resulted in his UFC win by submission with four out of seven. Given that, I like a bet on that prop here, and with Amirkhani’s most recent two wins coming by first-round submission, a play on him by Sub in Round 1, at +700 isn’t bad either.
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Muhammad Mokaev, -460
I’ll keep this brief: Mokaev is, in my opinion, the best prospect in all of MMA. The question with this guy isn’t whether he’ll become champion, it’s over how many divisions. At only 22 years old, Mokaev is excellent at everything, he’s a superior athlete, and he has a deep well of experience from his amateur days. This kid is special and will prove it again on Saturday against Charles Johnson.
Mason Jones, -345
Mason Jones will take on Ludovit klein in the main event of the prelim. This should be a highlight fight for this highly-touted prospect. Jones may not have lived up to his hype after he arrived in the UFC via Cage Warriors. However, he is still young and holds a lot of promise. Klein is certainly not a bad fighter, but Jones is much bigger and works at a much higher pace than Klein. This is a fight set up for Jones to get a big win in front of the British crowd, and he should deliver.
Paul Craig/Volkan Oezdemir Does Not Go To Decision, -360
In the 23 combined UFC fights between Craig and Oezdemir, they have just five decisions between them. Craig in particular is a get-or-get-got fighter, having been to the judge’s scorecards just once in his entire career. If Craig can’t get the submission, he’s going to get knocked out trying. That’s just the way this man fights.
Parlay these three bets together for +100 odds.
Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC
Parlay Curtis Blaydes, Jordan Leavitt, and Hannah Goldy for +2744 odds.
We’re doing something a bit different for the Long Shot this week, and it’s doing the dumbest thing you can do when sports betting: We’re parlaying some underdogs! And to make matters worse, we’re going to parlay the underdogs facing off against the London faithful’s favorite fighters. I’m calling this the Hometown Long Shot Fade Parlay.
I have already explained why Blaydes will beat Aspinall, but let us quickly explain why we should back Paddy Pimblett or Molly McCann.
Pimblett’s answer to this question is that he isn’t a good fighter. The man was hurt badly in both UFC bouts before this one, and Leavitt is a step up in competition. This has ruined potential.
For McCann, this is simply a value suggestion. McCann is a better fighter than Hannah Goldy, but she shouldn’t be -390 against anyone in the UFC. “Meatball” is the most likely parlay-breaker of the bunch, but I still think things could go awry for her. Soon, we’ll find out.
Another week of winning! These next events look great. To see a more detailed breakdown of the event and to place a few additional bets, visit No Bets Required . Otherwise, enjoy the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!
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