Barring any MMA weirdness (there’s a phrase one should never utter), we’re going to have a new UFC light heavyweight champion on Saturday, but the crowning is unlikely to come with the usual pomp and circumstance.
With respect to Jan Blachowicz and Magomed Ankalaev, two excellent fighters who have been tossed into the UFC 282 main event to battle for a vacant belt, this isn’t how the UFC expected to close out 2022. In a perfect world, Jiri Prochazka and Glover Teixeira would be running back one of the wildest championship fights in UFC history (imagine Prochazka and Teixeira claiming the No. 1 and 2 spots in the Fight of the Year rankings? Alas) tonight; in an even more perfect world, Francis Ngannou would be welcoming Jon Jones to the heavyweight division.
We have… not . instead.
Will Saturday’s winner be crowned the No. 1 light heavyweight in the business? Prochazka could return from injury before the end of 2023, meaning that bumping him from the top spot could be premature, and then there’s Bellator’s Vadim Nemkov making a case for himself with a convincing win over Corey Anderson. We’re about to find out how much weight UFC gold really holds this weekend.
In other main card action, the polarizing Paddy Pimblett fights Jared Gordon in the lightweight co-main event, Santiago Ponzinibbio faces short-notice replacement Alex Morono in a 180-pound catchweight bout, Darren Till looks to slow charge of fast-rising middleweight Dricus Du Plessis, and Bryce Mitchell and Ilia Topuria meet in what could be a duel of future featherweight title challengers.
What: UFC 282
Where: T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas
When: Saturday, Dec. 10. The card begins with a two-fight early prelims portion on ESPN+ at 6:30 p.m. ET, with continuing coverage of the six-fight prelim card on ESPN+ and ESPN2 beginning at 7 p.m. ET. The five-fight main card begins at 10 p.m. ET is exclusive to ESPN+ pay per-view.
(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings)
Let me start with three interconnected takes here:
All of that is to background what could be a terrible take: Blachowicz is going to win Saturday and become champion again.
I get it. Ankalaev has looked untouchable since a loss to Paul Craig in his UFC debut (a fight that Ankalaev was literally one second away from winning before getting caught by a submission). With a great striking game, and the ability of taking the fight to ground when needed, he has shown no weaknesses. He’s the younger fighter too, with Blachowicz nine years his elder.
Blachowicz has the potential to persevere and weather a storm, just like he did in many of his fights. Ankalaev’s early pickings will not discourage him. He also won’t panic if Ankalaev puts his backside on him. Blachowicz is nothing if not persistent.
Ankalaev has occasionally been too patient, which concerns me, because if you let someone with Blachowicz’s finishing power hang around in a 25-minute fight, it could come back to bite you. I’d love to see Ankalaev go for the kill early and leave no doubt that he’s MMA’s best 205er, but I’m sensing an upset here. I’m sensing a Blachowicz knockout win, against my better judgement.
Let’s face it, I have never correctly picked a Blachowicz battle before. So why not start right now?
Pick: Blachowicz
I’m seeing plenty of talk about Jared Gordon being the man to slow the Paddy Pimblett hype, but I actually think this is another well-done piece of UFC matchmaking to keep “The Baddy” train rolling.
Gordon is as tough as they come and his octagon experience is a major factor, but I don’t know if he has an A-plus skill to truly overwhelm Pimblett. On the other side, I give Pimblett a significant advantage in grappling so if this goes to the ground, Gordon could have his hands full. He fared well against Leonardo Santos, but with respect to Santos, the Brazilian jiu-jitsu expert had one foot out the door going into that fight. I also think Pimblett’s more chaotic style presents a different challenge.
Pimblett has an advantage in size and reach that cannot be overlooked. Again, Gordon has shown he can navigate an opponent’s longer limbs, but I like the pace that Pimblett brings to his fights. I fully expect Gordon to bang Pimblett up, only for Pimblett to power through and score takedowns.
We’ll have some great scrambles, and Gordon will be able to give his heart a lot. But Pimblett is victorious by submission.
Pick: Pimblett
Props to Alex Morono for stepping in on short notice for Robbie Lawler here. It’s a smart business decision too as this the most distinguished fighter he’s faced since a first-round knockout win over Donald Cerrone 17 months ago. Unfortunately for Morono, he’s exactly the kind of opponent that Ponzinibbio does well against.
Ponzinibbio uses his jabs and lateral movements to confuse his opponents. This is in sharp contrast to Morono, who has a more direct style. That’s not to say that Morono can’t be effective as he’s a consistent and accurate puncher, but cutting Ponzinibbio off without taking damage is a difficult task. Morono might have to show caution to the wind to advance on Ponzinibbio, which might only hasten his demise.
I’m predicting Ponzinibbio puts him down via strikes in the first or second round.
Pick: Ponzinibbio
I love this fight for both fighters.
While it’s possible to give Darren Till a break in competition, to help him rebuild his confidence after being faced only with ranked competition over the last few years, the UFC doesn’t do that. So he has been scheduled against someone on a win streak, which would instantly increase his credibility should he attempt an upset.
Dricus du Plessis runs the risk that a fighter on the skid steals his shine. But Till is a larger name so he could have a lot of success if he adds the former UFC welterweight champion to his Ws. Beat Till and a top 10 opponent is likely next.
Given Till’s past performance, this fight is likely to go the distance. However, Du Plessis’ endurance should help him get through some tough stretches. Till should also be able to resist his aggressiveness. Du Plessis will have the chance to control the fight’s tone as Till can be notoriously slow with his striking output.
It’s also possible that Du Plessis looks to exploit Till’s grappling deficiencies and should this end up on the ground somehow, that scenario is definitely in the former KSW champion’s favor especially if he hurts Till first. Give me Du Plessis via club and sub.
Pick: Du Plessis
I can’t lie, Ilia Topuria getting sidetracked by Paddy Pimblett has me a little worried.
By now, we’re used to side feuds occasionally taking over UFC press conferences, but the spite between Topuria and Paddy Pimblett has been building for a while and this past fight week it boiled over in an ugly way. Topuria is about to face the biggest challenge of his career in Bryce Mitchell and he’s actively engaging with that nonsense? Seems unwise.
Not to mention the fact that Mitchell might just be the better fighter anyway. Although his grappling skills are impressive, and his striking abilities are on the rise, it wouldn’t be wise to swap hammers against Topuria. Mitchell will want to mix in strikes judiciously while putting a heavy emphasis on wrestling and neutralizing offense.
Topuria can wrestle too, so this could be a chess match in the early going as both fighters figure out the best angle of attack. I’m liking Mitchell’s chances because I think he’s going to be single-minded in his approach and frustrate Topuria with non-stop takedown attempts and exhausting scrambles. He’ll earn a decision, but a late finish is a possibility too.
Pick: Mitchell
Preliminaries
Raul Rosas Jr. def. Jay Perrin
Jairzinho Rozenstruik (11) def. Chris Daukaus (15)
Dalcha Lungiambula def. Edmen Shahbazyan
Chris Curtis def. Joaquin Buckley
Billy Quarantillo def. Alexander Hernandez
T.J. Brown def. Erik Silva
Cameron Saaiman def. Steven Koslow
Source: https://www.mmafighting.com/2022/12/10/23501597/ufc-282-predictions?rand=96749
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