The UFC’s summer streak of 12 straight events comes to a close on Saturday with UFC 278, which takes place at Vivint Arena in Salt Lake City. The main event features a 170-pound rematch between Kamaru Usman and Leon Edwards, with the welterweight title on the line, and in the co-main event, former middleweight champion Luke Rockhold returns to the cage after a three-year absence to face one-time title challenger Paulo Costa. Add in another 11 fights, and there’s plenty of action to talk about, so let’s get to it.
As always, all odds are courtesy of our friends at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC
Luke Rockhold, +295
I’ve made a turn on the co-main.
For much of the build-up to this fight I thought it was quite simple: Rockhold, an old man with terrible defense, is fighting someone younger who excels at knocking out people. It’s basically the Yoel Romero fight, but different. But as the bout has neared, I’m sold that Rockhold is simply the better fighter. He can win on the feet against Costa, and if it goes to the floor, he has an enormous advantage. Add in that Costa has never actually beaten anyone all that good, and I’ve come around. Rockhold seems to have learned some lessons recently, so I believe he will fight smarter. Don’t believe me? Anthony Smith, who hates Rockhold, believes he will win the fight. I can take that, even with these incredible odds
Jose Aldo, +110
Full disclosure: I’m a massive Jose Aldo stan, and this prediction could be entirely colored by my love of the GOAT. He should win against Merab Davilishvili, and I believe he will get it done.
Although Dvalishvili can be a good fighter, he is not a great defender. He’s a very willing striker, but he’s not particularly great at it, and his defense leaves much to be desired. Marlon Moraes was tuning him up on the feet before Merab was able to get a takedown and turn the tide.
But that’s not the point: Dvalishvili doesn’t have the ability to get these takedowns. Jose Aldo put together one of the best careers in the history of MMA on the back of tremendous takedown defense and elite striking. This is basically a fight he’s had a dozen times before, and I like him to get yet another win in a career filled with them.
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
Kamaru Usman By KO/TKO, +240
I did a big breakdown of this fight that you can find here, so I’ll keep this shorter: I think Edwards has avenues toward success in this fight, but the problem is that Usman has far more of them. Because Edwards is not a big finisher, he will need to fight a near-perfect fight, and unfortunately, he’s been known to have big defensive lapses. Nate Diaz nearly beat him thanks to one and I think Usman is going to land the same big shots, but put in the coffin nails that Diaz couldn’t. I’m also placing a flyer on Usman By KO in Round 4 at +2000, just for giggles.
Tyson Pedro To Win By KO/TKO, -225
There’s a reason this fight is opening the pay-per-view main card, and it’s because the outcome is nearly guaranteed. Nine of Pedro’s 11 fights have ended in the first round, as have all 12 of Harry Hunsucker’s. Hunsucker has lost five times in a row by KO. It seems a formula.
Alexander Romanov By Submission, +350
Marcin Tybura has never been submitted, which is why this line is so high, but there’s a first for everything and I believe Romanov is the guy to do it. Romanov, who is one of those rising heavyweights in his generation, may be the most talented. Romanov had a solid enough wrestling career before moving to MMA, and he has the sort of big-man grappling game that defies traditional jiu-jitsu and gives people fits. Romanov is going to score takedowns, and I think get Tybura to tap for the first time.
Amir Albazi/Francisco Figueiredo Under 2. 5 Rounds, +115
We have a running gimmick on No Bets Barred that flyweight Unders never lose (because they don’t). In this instance you’ve got two men facing off with a combined 34 fights and only 8 combined decisions. Albazi is particularly a master on the mat and I believe he will win his second UFC title.
Photo by Louis Grasse/PxImages
Kamaru Usman/Leon Edwards Over 2. 5 Rounds, -300
Edwards is simply not a finisher, so the only way this leg doesn’t hit is if Usman gets an early stoppage. That’s possible, but I suspect Usman is going to spend the first round or two trying to get his wrestling game going, seeing how effective it was in their first encounter. This Over will be complete by the time Usman lands power shots.
Wu Yanan/Lucie Pudilova Over 2. 5 Rounds, -360
In four of her five previous fights, Wu Yanan won the decision. Lucie Pudilova has gone to decision in each of her previous seven fights. Each woman brings a lot to the boxing ring, but neither one is a great finisher.
Alexander Romanov, -345
For all of the reasons that I have already mentioned. This is Romanov’s fight, and the question now is: how will he win? If Tybura is slicker than I think and can keep from getting submitted, perhaps Romanov ground-and-pounds him, or is forced to ride out to a decision.
Parlay these three bets together for +119 odds.
Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC
Leon Edwards To Win By Decision, +900
Like I said, I really don’t see Leon Edwards getting a stoppage. He’s not good at it, and Usman is very, very durable. But if he can keep the fight standing, and stay defensively sound, Edwards does have a real chance to outpoint Usman with his leg kicks and superior striking. This is a long shot, but I am willing to take a chance.
We had a big week last week, hitting the parlay and a +350 prop bet, and for one brief moment, I thought we were going to cash the +1200 Angela Hill by Split Decision Long Shot, but somehow the judges all got it right. It’s all good. Still, that’s three in a row for the squad! We’ll keep the momentum going this week.
Enjoy the fighting, luck and gambling responsibly until next week!
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