This weekend in Houston, UFC 271 takes place and features a middleweight title rematch between Israel Adesanya and Robert Whittaker. Also on the card are 14 other fights showcasing some of the top MMA talent in the world. That’s a lot of fights, and a lot of opportunities to make some wagers. For those who are so inclined, and I’ll go over some of the bets I like for this weekend’s slate of fights.
All odds are courtesy of our friends at DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Derek Brunson over Jared Cannonier at +140
Cannonier was the favourite in this fight. Cannonier can defend takedowns well, but Brunson has been outwrestled more than Brunson. Brunson also is probably Cannonier’s best control wrestler.
Brunson will attempt to wrestle Cannonier starting at the bell. Even if Cannonier is able to withstand the first few attempts Brunson won’t be discouraged. Brunson has the chance to win this upset.
Nasrat Haqparast over Bobby Green at +115
Green is Jorge Masvidal in many ways. Green is an extremely skilled fighter, better than his records indicate. But he has a terrible habit of fighting exactly to the level of his competition, and as a result, he loses a lot of close decisions. He’s had five split decisions during his career so it’s not surprising that Haqparast is worth more than the money.
Jared Vanderaa over Andrei Arlovski at +125
Vanderaa is nobody’s idea of a world-beater, and at his peak, Arlovski would have rolled through Vanderaa. Those days are gone. Arlovski is 43 years old and has been eking out wins on grit and guile. This is not sustainable. Vanderaa, while not a UFC heavyweight champion at the moment, is an attractive value pick.
Alexander Hernandez over Renato Moicano at +140
This is a single-question fight: Can Renato Moicano score takedowns? He will win if he does, but I doubt he can. Hernandez has struggled when facing guys who can match his speed and athleticism, and that’s not Moicano. Moicano will have trouble finding takedown opportunities because Hernandez’s speed and athleticism won’t allow him to do so. Hernandez’s strength should also prevent Moicano’s ability to get clinch takesdowns. The fast hands of Hernandez should take care of the rest.
Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC
Israel Adesanya – Robert Whittaker over 3. 5 rounds at -165
For a full breakdown of this fight, read my Paths to Victory column from earlier this week. The short summary is that Whittaker has a horrible matchup. I do expect Whittaker will take a more controlled approach in this rematch. This means that Bobby Knuckles may be less tentative. Adesanya doesn’t like forcing the issue so it could end up looking something similar to Adesanya’s fight with Yoel Romo. We will make it to the championship round, regardless of what happens.
Derrick Lewis over Tai Tuivasa by KO/TKO at -125
This is as straightforward of a fight as exists in MMA today. Tuivasa might use distance and leg kicks to defeat Lewis in a completely different world. But that’s simply not in the cards, both because it’s not who Tuivasa is and because his defense isn’t good enough to sustain such a plan. Lewis and Tuivasa are going to come out and swang and bang until one of them falls over, and you shouldn’t bet against “The Black Beast” in those sorts of fights.
Bobby Green – Nasrat Haqparast Goes to Decision at -190
Both Green and Haqparast are defense-first fighters, and neither is an especially potent finisher. In their combined 25 UFC fights, Green and Haqparast have gone to a decision 19 times. This one should make 20 fairly easily.
Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC
Israel Adesanya at -290 + Alex Perez at -380 + Casey O’Neil at -380 parlayed together for +114 odds
Adesanya technically is better and more dangerous than Whittaker. Whittaker has few routes that consistently produce winning offense. With so much on the line, I expect Whittaker will do better this time, but Adesanya is either going to take a clear decision, or get a stoppage in the later rounds.
In all other areas, Perez makes Matt Schnell look much less dangerous than Perez. Perez is more active, packs more power, and is the better wrestler and grappler. Schell is game but outmatched and is going to lose a decision, unless he gives his neck up before the final bell.
Lastly, Roxanne Modafferi is a legitimate pioneer in MMA and a legend of the sport, but she’s also 39 years old and facing one of the brightest prospects in women’s MMA. Modafferi may be able to keep up with the best, but her veteran skills are not enough. She is physically superior here.
Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Derek Brunson by Submission at +1400
I believe Brunson is more likely to win this fight than what the oddsmakers have given him. Cannonier will have to give up if Brunson scores takedowns consistently. In doing so, that creates chances for Brunson to take the back and sink in a choke.
I don’t expect to have this many bets every week, but UFC 271 had a lot of interesting fights with some attackable betting lines. Not every straight bet will be an underdog either, but that’s just how things shook out this week. Good luck y’all, and gamble responsibly!
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