Depending on who has their hands raised at the end of the night, we could see the beginning of one rivalry and the conclusion of another.
That’s the baseline of what to expect heading into UFC 270 as Francis Ngannou and Ciryl Gane meet in a heavyweight championship unification bout and Brandon Moreno takes on Deiveson Figueiredo in a flyweight title fight for a third time.
The Ngannou-Gane main event is a battle of two of the most gifted heavyweights in MMA history, a pair of big men who combine undeniable power with stunning agility. Ngannou defeated his opponents with some of most frightening knockouts that we have ever seen inside the octagon, while Gane is yet to lose in his fight career. Sprinkle in plenty of personal drama from the Frenchmen’s shared association with coach Fernand Lopez, and a past sparring session that Ngannou claims ended in with him accidentally putting Gane to sleep, and you have all the makings of what could be a classic series regardless of who wins tonight.
There are many complications which could lead to a one-and done collision. Ngannou has spoken publicly about his upcoming contract negotiations and how he’s looking to not only be properly compensated, but to be given the option to box as he pursues a crossover bout with Tyson Fury. Should Ngannou win, a championship clause could tie him to the promotion regardless of his career ambitions; should he lose, it could actually open the door for him to walk and enter the boxing world. It seemed impossible that Ngannou would continue at the top, even though it was unimaginable a year ago. But that is the reality that awaits fans if Gane proves them wrong and turns his interim title into an undisputed champion.
Figueiredo and Moreno will be meeting for the third time, despite having two obvious competitors waiting for them. However, neither Askar Askarov nor Alexandre Pantoja (the former having previously battled Moreno to a split draw, the latter holding two wins over Moreno) were available to compete at the UFC’s first pay-per-view of 2021, so Figueiredo was given the opportunity to reclaim his title with Moreno eager to compete in January.
A win for Moreno keeps his feel-good story rolling and erases any questions about whether his dominant victory over Figueiredo at UFC 263 was just an off-night for the Brazilian. Figueiredo would be able to either return to the title fight or take a new route at bantamweight. One could argue it just feels too soon to see Moreno and Figueiredo fight again, but why complain about seeing arguably the two best flyweights in the world throw down one more time?
In other main card action, wild man Michel Pereira welcomes PFL and Bellator veteran Andre Fialho to the UFC’s welterweight division, Cody Stamann fights Said Nurmagomedov in a bantamweight contest, and Trevin Giles moves down to 170 pounds to face undefeated Contender Series signing Michael Morales.
What: UFC 270
Where: Honda Center in Anaheim, Calif.
When: Saturday, Jan. 22. The two-fight early prelims begin on ESPN and ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET, followed by the four-fight prelims on ESPN and ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET. The five-fight main card begins at 10 p.m. ET and is available exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view.
(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in MMA Fighting Global Rankings)
Despite Francis Ngannou’s absurd highlight reel, it’s actually not often that he’s a massive favorite. Due to Miocic’s humiliation of him in the first encounter, he was slightly ahead of Stipe Miocic. He also was underdog against Cain Velasquez in the rematch and Curtis Blaydes in the second due to Blaydes’ remarkable wrestling skills. As fearsome as Ngannou is, that’s rarely been reflected in the odds and he heads into his highly anticipated grudge match with Ciryl Gane as an underdog once again.
It’s understandable. While Ngannou confirmed that he was MMA’s preeminent destroyer of worlds by vanquishing Miocic, that achievement occurred a whole 10 months ago and Gane has been busy since then. He rebounded from an uneventful win over Jairzinho Rozenstruik with a slightly more impressive (and no less lopsided) decision nod against Alexander Volkov and then scored a much-needed finish against Derrick Lewis. Gane’s “what have I done for you lately” has been impressive during Ngannou’s rest, and it is now entirely believable that Gane could be the heavyweight champion.
I’m not ready to count Ngannou out just yet. It does concern me that mentally he could have one foot out the door with opportunities outside of the UFC on his mind, but I don’t think his competitiveness will allow him to take Gane lightly. Eric Nicksick, his coach at Xtreme Couture has seen him grow and added maturity to his impressive skills and natural gifts. It’s almost unfair. You can give Gane power, but it is not the best thing for him.
Gane has the ability to beat Ngannou, and possibly even put down his Cameroonian counterpart. “Bon Gamin”, a man of extraordinary patience, will not force Ngannou to do anything. Instead, he’ll let Ngannou take the initiative while strategically picking apart Ngannou. Ngannou will be dropped by him at any sign of error. Ngannou is aware of this, so be ready for some rounds that remind you all of Lewis’ famous staring match with Ngannou.
Everybody loses and the best get better from those losses. That’s what I expect to happen to Gane, a superb fighter who is running into one of MMA’s pound-for-pound best at the wrong time. These two will fight again and when they do, it will be Ngannou who will have the lead.
Ngannou by third-round knockout.
Pick: Ngannou
Deiveson Figueiredo is expressing everything one would expect from a fighter trying to win their first fight against an opponent who seems to be their favorite: He’s fit, his nutrition has improved, he feels focused and he had the most memorable camp of his entire life. He even has a whole new media persona (though coach Eric Albarracin may be influencing this more directly than either man would like to let on). It wasn’t long ago that Figueiredo was the boogeyman of the flyweight division, so why can’t he finally beat Brandon Moreno?
*Because Moreno won over him not by chance. It’s possible that Figueiredo wasn’t at his best, but a more plausible explanation is that “The Assassin Baby” is just better. Moreno’s grappling was his bread-and-butter when he originally burst onto the scene as a wide-eyed 22-year-old and that played a major role in him finishing Figueiredo. Figueiredo was also able to be beaten up by him on the feet. Figueiredo is optimistic, but I find it hard to believe that he suddenly has the key to defeating Moreno.
I do expect this to skew closer to their first fight than the second, which means we should see scorecards again. However, this time it will be a definitive victory for Moreno and quite possibly the last we see of Figueiredo at 125 pounds for the near future.
Pick: Moreno
As unpredictable as Michel Pereira can be, this should be a highly favorable matchup for him. Especially when you consider that he’s shown a more steady side as of late as he strives to become a legitimate contender at 170 pounds (boring, I know).
Andre Fialho is a qualified slugger. He’s going to march forward, wait for the right moment, and fire straight heat at Pereira’s chin. Pereira is not one of those birds that stays put for very long. Pereira is a very active hummingbird and will not allow Fialho remove the cage. Fialho can punch hard, that’s obvious, but Pereira will struggle to keep him in check.
Fialho will eventually get frustrated and wander in to Pereira’s aerial techniques. He’ll be finished before the third round.
Pick: Pereira
Nurmagomedov’s name carries lots of expectations (even though Said doesn’t have a direct connection to Khabib). And, not by coincidence, Cody Stamann believes that pressure is the best way to win.
Nurmagomedov is an exciting striker who excels at range, but can also quickly generate power in close. Stamann must throw Nurmagomedov off his game, timing his flurries and mixing in takedowns to make this fight ugly. He’s more than capable of doing so, though not having a reputation as a finisher is going to limit his ability to intimidate Nurmagomedov. If he can’t at least occasionally get this one to the mat, he’s going to end up in a standup battle that he won’t like.
Even if Stamann can push the pace and attack with volume, it will be difficult for him to avoid Nurmagomedov’s creative and precise strikes for 15 minutes. All it will take is a knockdown or a stagger to swing the scoring in Nurmagomedov’s favor, and by the end of this one, I expect he’ll have done more than enough damage to earn a decision win.
Pick: Nurmagomedov
Trevin Giles showed a lot of potential competing at 185 pounds, so it will be exciting to see what he can do a weight class down. His cardio and sharp hands make him a formidable athlete. He lacks a standout, A+ skill, but being well-rounded can take you far inside the octagon and perhaps a lighter frame will open things up for him.
It is difficult to predict how Michael Morales’ debut will turn out. At just 22 years old, the Ecuadorian is a work in progress and he’ll likely have made considerable improvements since we saw him on the Contender Series in September. Morales is a strong wrestler and has proven to be an excellent technical striker.
I lean towards the experience of Giles here as Morales has faced relatively inferior competition so far. Although he has shown that he is a superior fighter to the ones he’s encountered, Giles still holds the power and tools necessary for Morales’ defeat. If this fight happened a year later, it might be completely different; right now, I see Giles giving Morales a reality check and surprising him with a submission off of his back.
Pick: Giles
Preliminaries
Victor Henry def. Raoni Barcelos
Jack Della Maddalena def. Pete Rodriguez
Tony Gravely def. Saimon Oliveira
Matt Frevola def. Genaro Valdez
Vanessa Demopoulos def. Silvana Gomez Juarez
Kay Hansen def. Jasmine Jasudavicius
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