If it feels like we were just here, two men headlining a pay-per-view event to claim the vacant light heavyweight crown. You’re not insane, we’re just crazy. But after Jan Blachowicz and Magomed Ankalaev fought to a draw at UFC 282, leaving the 205-pound division without a champion, the powers that be scrambled and made a new vacant title fight between former undisputed champion Glover Teixeira and rising contender Jamahal Hill.
It’s a clash of both styles and generations, and it all takes place as the main event for the UFC’s first trip to Brazil in three years, so let’s take a look at what each man needs to do to win this marquee matchup and ultimately what will happen on Saturday night.
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
I don’t think we appreciate Glover Teixeira enough.
At 43 years of age, it’s easy to write off Teixeira’s late career run as being the product of a weak division with some overblown competition, and while that may play a role, the truth is, Teixeira is one hell of a technician. Jiri Prochaza is not the greatest fighter we’ve ever seen, but he’s damn good, and for 24 minutes Teixeira gave the younger, faster, and stronger man everything he could handle. On Saturday, something very similar might be on the horizon.
The biggest single reason Teixeira has been able to have such continued success in MMA is that his game is not built around athleticism. Although Teixeira may be a skilled athlete, sound principles in striking and wrestling are what make him a great fighter. That’s good for the former champion, as those specific tools line up extremely well against Hill.
Hill is a striker by trade and a knockout artist, but he’s over-reliant on his power, and the few times we’ve actually seen him on the floor, it has not been impressive. In the simplest terms, Thiago Santos, a man who himself is known as a knockout artist and almost never wrestled, scored six takedowns on Hill. Santos was not an exceptional grappler so he couldn’t hold the positions for long. However, Teixeira shouldn’t have any problems in this regard. The most obvious path forward for Teixeira is simply to get his takedowns going, and the rest should be formulaic.
How should he do that? I think there are two primary set ups that can get Teixeira into his spots. First, he does what he is used to: he presses forward. His ability to come forward, make opponents feel his presence and threaten them with a takedown is remarkable. He doesn’t overexert himself and does not walk into counters. Anthony Smith was made extremely uncomfortable by this talent, which eventually led to Teixeira landing some great shots and transitioning into grappling. Santos had similar success against Hill. If Teixeira is able to march forward and fire body kicks and leg kicks behind a high guard and can move quickly, then something will happen.
The reactive single-leg is Teixeira’s second biggest opportunity. Hill rides a fine line between being patient in picking his spots, but then selling out whenever he see does see an opening. Hill may be able to land one or two good shots, but then he gives up all defense responsibility and throws the haymaker. This opens Hill up to new opportunities. Once this has hit the mat, Teixeira should be free to do what he wants.
Teixeira’s concern is the same as it is for his entire career. MMA is a game for young men, but he isn’t that. At some point, the chin simply stops being able to take the shots that are required to excel at the highest levels of the sport, and particularly when you aren’t the fastest guy, that chin needs to be double tough. That being said, Hill isn’t actually all that fast and while he hits hard, he doesn’t bring the same force to bear as a guy like Prochazka, and Teixeira’s chin held up surprisingly well in that one. Still, the less he gets hit, the better.
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
While Glover Teixeira is underrated, Hill is probably exactly properly rated: He’s a dangerous fighter and a decent one, but he’s got some clear limitations. Hill must minimize these limitations if he is to defeat Teixeira to win the title of light heavyweight.
Hill’s single greatest goal when entering this fight is to maintain its standing. Teixeira has some of the best top control in the sport, and so, for all intents and purposes, the floor is lava for him. Teixeira might only need one takedown to end the fight. He must win the pressure fight to avoid those takedowns. Teixeira has had great success lately by being the one who dictates the terms of engagement. This allows him to minimize his exposure to the opposing offense. He can also slowly build up his opponents’ respect for the fence so he is able to find easier takedowns. If Hill allows either of these things, the war is already over. Hill must be pushing Teixeira forward, flashing his jab continuously, and keeping him from getting into a rhythm. It’s simply much harder to score takedowns on the back foot and into open space, so Hill has to make this his number one priority.
Second, don’t give up your back if Teixeira scores a takedown. Hill has not been seen on the UFC floor much in his UFC career. However, what we’ve seen of him is quite concerning. Against Santos, he repeatedly simply gave up his back in an attempt to get back to his feet, and while that worked against Santos, it’s a death sentence against Teixeira. Hill may have chosen that escape against Santos as it was not too risky. Hill must be rescued by Teixeira. He will need to find underhooks to rebuild his base, even though it may take a while. It is better to win a round than to be beaten.
Lastly, now that the defensive points are covered, Hill needs to let the hands go. Though Hill is known as this big knockout puncher, the truth is, he isn’t a monstrous hitter, he simply has excellent timing and supreme confidence in himself. These two attributes can make a difference in the sport of UFC (just ask Conor McGregor). They’ve helped Hill build an impressive highlight reel, but they may not have been enough against Teixeira. Teixeira is more powerful than a coffin nail, and will need to be taken down with several shots. Hill must bring the same effort as he did against Thiago, and Teixeira should be overwhelmed.
Brazil.
It’s something that’s been repeated a lot but it’s not hard to believe: this is the first UFC fight in Brazil for three years. The crowd will be on ONE. Brazilian crowds have long been the gold-standard for hometown advantage, and for this particular fight card, that feels like it could be doubly true. 15,000 people chanting “UH VAI MORRER” (you’re going to die) is enough to rattle anyone, and for that to be Hill’s first fight outside of the U.S. and his first time fighting for the title, that is a lot of pressure we’ve never seen him deal with before.
This fight lines up exceedingly well for Teixeira. His strengths coincide with Hill’s known weaknesses, and Hill isn’t even in a great position to exploit Teixeira’s shortcomings. It would be helpful to look at the situation more closely, but that’s unnecessary. At the end of the day, Hill was repeatedly taken down by Thiago Santos, and Teixeira is a much better wrestler with a much more dangerous top game than Santos. If this fight wasn’t on semi-short notice, maybe I could see Hill putting in enough wrestling specific work to keep things upright, but with only a few weeks to prepare, it’s seems unlikely. Teixeira is simply the better, more diverse fighter, and on Saturday I expect him to show it.
Glover Teixeira submits Jamahal Hill in Round 2.
Source: https://www.mmafighting.com/2023/1/20/23561582/paths-to-victory-will-glover-teixeira-reclaim-light-heavyweight-gold-at-ufc-283?rand=96749
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