This weekend, UFC 275 takes place at the Singapore Indoor Stadium in Singapore. The main event features the light heavyweight champion Glover Teixeira taking on No. 1 contender Jiri Prochazka. It’s a battle between the old guard and the new as the 42-year old champ looks to derail the young dynamo, so let’s discuss what each man needs to do to win, any X-factors in play, and ultimately what will happen.
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
The common narrative coming into this fight is that Teixeira needs to score takedowns to win this fight. That’s only half right. Teixeira can win this bout on the feet or on the floor, and perhaps his biggest key to victory is not forcing one or the other.
If you go back and watch Teixeira’s current winning streak, the thing that should jump out is how he goes about it. He’s having great success with bringing people down, and then bundling them onto the mat. He is striking well. For most of his career, he was known primarily as a power puncher, and though his speed has waned, the power remains — along with a fair bit of craft to go with it.
Teixeira is a master at crowding opponents and making them feel the hand threat (or getting them to swing aggressively at him). Then he changes levels in order to score takedowns. Because he is no longer explosive and athletic, you rarely see him shooting naked takedowns at the centre of the cage. At UFC 275, victory starts with making Prochazka respect the hands.
Victory might end with the hands of Teixeira, as well. While this is billed as a striker vs. grappler matchup, Teixeira absolutely has the craft and power to put Prochazka down on the feet. While striking, Prochazka keeps his hands near his waist, relying heavily on head movement and a solid chin to avoid trouble. But in both of his UFC fights, that has nearly cost him. He was stunned by Dominick Reyes and Volkan Oezdemir, so Teixeira is capable of doing the same. Glover is a great finisher when he gets hurt. Glover’s left hook could prove to be an excellent money-maker, particularly if Prochazka goes a bit wild.
Let’s finally talk about grappling. Although it may not be Teixeira’s only route to victory it seems the most solid. Prochazka, while not an exceptional wrestler, was even defeated by Dominick Reyes. Reyes only has one takedown during his UFC career. Prochazka values offense more than position. Teixeira simply needs to draw out offense from Prochazka, or be comfortable eating a big shot to force a clinch, where he can work trips or chain takedowns. Teixeira should finish the takedown if he can. Prochazka’s explosiveness is greater than his technical skills from the bottom.
Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC
Prochazka is the clear betting favourite in this fight. He’s faster and younger than his opponent, and has been producing highlight-reel knockouts each time he goes. Against a man with the grit, savvy, and determination of Teixeira, though, those attributes might not be enough. Prochazka must fight intelligently to win the fight.
In broad strokes, the biggest key for Prochazka is to keep this fight standing, because if Teixeira can score takedowns, he is screwed. Prochazka should follow Nikita Kralov’s strategy and keep the fight going against Teixeira. Above all, he needs to stay away from the fence. The cage is the great equalizer for the somewhat slow-footed Teixeira, allowing him easier entries onto single-leg takedowns. For the quicker Prochazka, he needs to stay in space.
Prochazka must also disincentivize Teixeira to shoot on him. Teixeira is determined to take down his opponent’s leg and chain him from one to two. Teixeira has a way to protect his feet by allowing him to freely do this. Prochazka should punish Teixeira for engaging in any form of contact. Karl Roberson almost knocked out the champion with Travis Browne-esque elbows during their fight, and Prochazka needs to look at doing the same.
Finally, and most importantly, Prochazka needs to pick his spots to be wild. “Denisa” made his name by being half a lunatic inside the cage, but spinning attacks and wild-man stuff creates chances for Teixeira to get to his preferred spots. Prochazka shouldn’t entirely move away from that sort of unpredictability — it’s part of what makes him so dangerous. But his edge in speed and power presents a much more reliable avenue to victory than back elbows.
For me, this fight has two X-factors, and they’re somewhat related.
First, how does Teixeira’s chin hold up? He is 42 years old and has been dropped or hurt in most of the wins on his current streak. Fortunately, he has an incredible ability to recover, which has allowed him to overcome those momentary setbacks. Prochazka, however is an entirely different type of finisher. If Prochazka hurts him early, Teixeira is in huge trouble.
Second, what happens to Teixeira if Prochazka is smart and keeps him outside? The champion reacted to the fact that Anthony Smith and Nikita Kraylov were using volume and movement to beat Teixeira in the early rounds. Teixeira, particularly against Smith, simply lost respect for his power and began throwing heat at him. Teixeira began to romp over Smith down the stretch. How does this look at Prochazka who is a confident and skilled brawler? Dominick Reyes found out the hard way that trading with Prochazka, even when hurt, is a dangerous proposition. Teixeira will have to learn this lesson.
When this fight was first announced, I, like many, thought this would be Prochazka’s coronation. A 42-year-old man fighting one of the most violent guys in the game? It seems so straightforward. But Glover Teixeira is not an ordinary 42-year-old man. He may not be as fit and healthy as Michael Bisping, but his skillset has made him the most successful version of himself. He should use all of the tools in his arsenal to exploit Prochazka’s weaknesses and keep the title of light heavyweight.
Glover Teixeira wins by second-round submission.
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