UFC 282 goes down this Saturday at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, and the road here has been a chaotic one. Originally, the final pay-per-view event of 2022 was supposed to be headlined by a light heavyweight title rematch of the presumptive “Fight of the Year” between Jiri Prochazka and Glover Teixeira. However, Prochazka’s shoulder injury two weeks ago threw everything off-balance. He was forced to withdraw from the fight. Given the severity of his injury, Prochazka opted to give up the title while he recovers, and the UFC attempted to have Teixeira face Magomed Ankalaev for the vacant belt. But the former champion declined to accept the change of opponent on short notice, and so instead, the previously planned co-main event between Ankalaev and Jan Blachowicz got bumped into the top spot with the vacant title on the line.
So with all the anarchy that’s taken place, let’s take a look at what each man needs to do to win this marquee matchup and ultimately what will happen on fight night.
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
Jan Blachowicz can absolutely win this fight.
Blachowicz, prior to his win of the title for light heavyweight, was one the most underrated fighters in boxing. He is a strong kickboxer with good (if slightly exaggerated) power, and a rock solid wrestling and ground game. He is a formidable opponent for any fighter, even Ankalaev. But on top of that, he has some stylistic edges in this fight that he can exploit.
First up for Blachowicz is his kicking game. The former light heavyweight champion rebranded himself with the “Legendary Polish Power” stuff, and while he does have heavy hands, it’s his kicks that are his real calling card. He has a wicked body kick and good low kicks (he’s also one of the best kick defenders in the sport, just ask Israel Adesanya) and Ankalaev has shown a clear weakness at defending both. In his UFC career, opponents have landed 87 percent of their low kicks, and Volkan Oezdemir had a ton of success chopping out Ankalaev’s leg. Blachowicz can do the same and much, much worse. Ankalaev was somewhat better against Anthony Smith in this category, but Blachowicz must first test it out to see what the results are.
More important, though, Blachowicz must focus on his defensive responsibility. Although Ankalaev is slow and measured, he throws fast and powerfully, which can put Blachowicz in serious trouble. That’s dangerous, because Blachowicz has a habit of losing the plot defensively when he’s throwing combinations. Teixeira cut him in a combination that had him on skates just before the end. Thiago Santos raped him using a left hook, and he charged in with his arms wide open. He was chuckling hands without any defense. If he does the same against Ankalaev, it’s good night.
Blachowicz should work well in combination with him. Ankalaev’s defense is largely predicated on maintaining his preferred range, stymieing single attacks and returning fire with check hooks and pull counters. Blachowicz can land big power shots by working safely into this range and overloading Ankalaev with his preferred defensive triggers. He just has to do so without putting his chin on a platter.
Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC
Magomed Ankalaev is the betting favorite for this fight, and that is not a mistake. If he comes in prepared, he should win this fight. And to do that, hev should speed things up, slow things down, and simply do the thing.
Ankalaev is often given a lot for his striking. While that credit is not undeserved it’s a bit excessive. He’s got good power in his hands and a quick trigger on the counter, but the strength of his game is largely his defense, and that often comes at the expense of his offense. He is not a full-on counter fighter, but he much prefers to let opponents kick off engagements, and that can result in long periods of relative inactivity. Blachowicz might allow him to do that, however, it is a risky proposition. There’s no reason to expect that he would consent to such a fight.
Although Blachowicz can be a good backfoot player, he is not an excellent counter-striker and struggles to face guys faster than him. Ankalaev is certainly one of those. Moreover, Ankalaev is actually pretty good when he’s leading off, and he’s got a wicked left straight that fires from seemingly nowhere. Blachowicz is known for “trying to win it back” whenever he falls behind. This often leads to a semi-reckless bull rush that opens him up to big counters. So Ankalaev would be best served to bring the fight to Blachowicz whenever possible, and when the former champion attempts to return the favor, melt him.
Contesting the fight at closer quarters could help Blachowicz eliminate his best weapon, the kicks. Blachowicz has the superior kick and Ankalaev the better boxer. Ankalaev should make every effort to ensure that this fight takes place within boxing range. Fighting this fight in the orthodox style, rather than his southpaw preferred, would make him a better fighter. It would put more of a focus on his advantages in hand speed and head movement.
Ankalaev must invest in the fight in wrestling. Although he’s not a clinch wrestler since joining the UFC in 2011, he does have a strong Greco-Roman background and looks good at it. Blachowicz can be a good grappler, as well as a BJJ blackbel, but it doesn’t give him a lot off his back. He’s also not bulletproof, even though he is an excellent wrestler. Teixeira was successful with straight double legs and Thiago Santos even scored a takedown against him. Ankalaev is likely to get the top position and, given his abilities in ground-and-pounding, might even be able win that fight. It will provide Blachowicz with another layer of defense, but it is very risky.
How much with the last-minute change of plans affect things on Saturday?
For the vast majority of their training camps, both Blachowicz and Ankalaev prepared for a 15-minute battle, and now they’ve only had two weeks to adjust to a 25-minute one instead. That is a very big adjustment with a very small amount of time to get prepared, and so we really have no idea what affect, if any, it will have on the proceedings. Will both men have the gas tank to go a hard 25, or will the change of plans make them adopt a different style? Did either have a specific game plan that doesn’t really work over 25 minutes, so it’s now out the window? Does Jan’s greater experience in five-round fights make a difference in this instance? It’s hard to say. While I generally think five-rounders make fights more predictable, in this instance, it’s the exact opposite. The short-notice change adds a layer of uncertainty to this fight that I otherwise would have felt pretty confident in.
This fight seems closer than most believe, and the odds are against it. However, it feels like Ankalaev should be victorious. Blachowicz may be solid in all areas, but Ankalaev might just be a bit more skilled in each category. He’s also younger and quicker, which can make him a significant advantage. If Blachowicz can get the kicks going early and Ankalaev has no answer for it, they dynamics of this fight change rapidly. If Ankalaev does not have to do any prep work before he arrives, he will come prepared with a strategy that can mitigate the problems and start his offense. This fight could have Blachowicz being clipped in the later stages. But, my gut says that this bout is mostly a stare contest. Ankalaev will go to wrestling to win a convincing but uninspiring victory.
Magomed Ankalaev def. Jan Blachowicz by unanimous decision.
Source: https://www.mmafighting.com/2022/12/8/23499000/paths-to-victory-can-jan-blachowicz-reclaim-light-heavyweight-title-magomed-ankalaev-at-ufc-282?rand=96749
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