Tonight, UFC 270 goes down at the Honda Center in Anaheim, CA. The main event features teammates (or not?) As heavyweight champion Francis Ngannou faces interim champion Ciryl Ganes, they will be rematching their rivals. Ngannou vs. Gane has been the main event, drawing attention to the title “Badest Man on the Planet”. However, the co-main show is not far behind, with a trio bout for the flyweight title featuring Brandon Moreno, Deiveson Figueiredo, and Deiveson Fagnino.

So let’s talk about those fights and maybe a few other UFC 270 angles to boot.

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Ngannou vs. Gane

Although the story of “friends turning enemies” has been the dominant theme in the build up, it is actually one of the most boring aspects. This is especially because neither fighter believes that this is true. The most interesting aspect of the fight to me is the basic: Two of the best heavyweights fighting in the world for the title in an exciting matchup.

Let’s start with Gane. “Bon Gamin” is an accomplished Muay Thai fighter who has shown a talent for all aspects of MMA, and is a supreme athlete on top of that. The go-to line to describe him lately is a heavyweight who moves like a middleweight, and as trite as that is, it’s also true. Gane believes the game should be easy: Gane uses movement to dodge Ngannou’s big shots, frustrate him, and then wins with leg kicks, counters, and a win when Ngannou rushes in. He’s the more technical striker — let that carry the day.

For Ngannou, I believe he has two paths available. His primary route forward is to land the big shot. Ngannou is the most difficult hitter in MMA history. If he lands clean it’s a game changer. Ngannou must accept the fact that he will not be able win so early. He should also be patient, work behind a jab and catch Gane with a big move. Alternatively though, I think Ngannou actually might be well-served to work takedowns. Gane is not expecting Ngannou to wrestle, and though Gane has shown some skills on the mat, he’s substantially less dangerous there. Gane will be smashed to bits if Ngannou is able to get the upper hand. This would be a much easier route to landing his major shots.

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Ngannou’s confidence

The way

Ngannou acted in the lead-up to this fight was fascinating. I think there’s a reasonable case to be made that the things he’s said and the way he has said them is largely the result of the various outside factors at play: The semi-disingenuous way the UFC has tried to promote this fight, the disrespect the UFC showed by give Gane a title in the first place, his ongoing contract negotiation with the UFC, all of it. It’s quite a few extracurriculars and can eat away at anybody, even the Baddest Man On The Planet. For me, Ngannou doesn’t seem cocky, salty, or any other type of snob — I believe he is aware he’s going to be slapped.

Francis Ngannou,

isn’t a man who likes to have his shins kicked. I’m willing to bet that since the age of 15, he probably hasn’t been beat up more than a handful of times. And after finally climbing the mountain and winning the UFC heavyweight title, the expectation is that he won’t be beat up for a long while yet, except here comes Ciryl Gane. The two trained together, and as much as you can say that training isn’t fighting (which is true), the reality is that both men probably have a sense of what will go down in a real fight. Ngannou is just a faster and more skilled fighter than Gane. Yes, Ngannou has the power, and with that anything can happen, but I think Gane is going to outclass Ngannou and I think Ngannou knows it and I think he’s having a hard time dealing with it. He has said the things that he did because he knows it. This is what happened when Holly Holm and Ronda Rousey fought. Ngannou is posturing, and come tonight, he’s not only going to be beaten, he may well be embarrassed.

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Outcomes

I believe that a loss is quite obvious.

If Ngannou loses tonight, he will have fought out his UFC contract and be a free agent. Even off a loss, Ngannou is a known commodity and captivating attraction. Even if Gane tools him up tonight, there is still probably enough intrigue to make a Tyson Fury or Anthony Joshua fight. That alone would make him more money than anything the UFC is going to pay him. After his stint in boxing, then he can re-sign with the UFC or negotiate with Bellator, who I’m guessing would be more than happy to sign him for 70% of what the UFC will pay while also affording him a boxing option.

But, a win? It’s not an easy fight. Ngannou’s win will essentially secure his UFC contract via the champion clause. Although we don’t yet know the exact language, each contract may be slightly different. The gist of it is that Ngannou will remain bound to his UFC contract until either he loses the title (or he expires), which is likely to be a few years. Ngannou has no choice but to accept this clause. Ngannou also seems to be unable or unwilling for the UFC not even to consider crossover fights with Conor McGregor. He’ll make what he makes until he loses.

Although a loss may be the more advantageous of both options, it is not necessarily the best. Ngannou’s most profitable path to success looks something like this: Ngannou defeats Ciryl Gane tonight. Then Ngannou takes on Jon Jones in summer. Jones beats Ngannou. Now the UFC and Joe Rogan are calling him the greatest of all-time and he books a rematch against Stipe Miocic for the fall. The bell sounds and Ngannou immediately drops to the mat and taps. Stipe takes the title. Ngannou gets his box and Tyson Fury is in December. He makes all the money while laughing at UFC’s ridiculous contract structure.

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DON’T FORGET ABOUT THEM DAWGS

I mean, Ngannou for sure. Georgia would need to win 14 of 15 games next year. This is obviously more challenging than winning one fight. Especially when you are like Francis. Also, I’m like, 83 percent sure that Alabama is going to go scorched Earth on everyone next year.

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Jon Jones and the heavyweight title picture

I’m going to assume Francis Ngannou. Ngannou-Jones is the fight everyone wants and is most compelling. It’s like the never-was Jones vs. Rumble Johnson fight, only dialed up to 11. This fight is the best one for Jones’ legacy, it’s also the one with the highest potential to win, as well as the biggest money. That being said, even though I think Gane will also be a very tough out for Jones, I’m not sure I’d be itching to fight “The Predator” either. It’s something I have been saying for a while now. But Jones was so focused on Thiago Santos getting it, that he almost lost to someone without working knees. Ngannou’s strength is more dangerous than Santos’.

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The Co-Main Event.

I think it depends entirely on the quality of the win. If Figueiredo wins a close contest, he and Moreno would officially be tied up at 1-1-1, with Moreno having the only clear win of the bunch. In that scenario, I wouldn’t be at all shocked if they ran it back one more time. The other thing is that if Figgy Smalls slams Moreno then I believe the power brokers are more inclined to consider the fight as a win and send it back to Moreno’s contenders.

It’s a moot point, but I believe it is because Moreno will win. Moreno saw that he did not need to fear Figueiredo’s strength after the first fight. In the second fight, Moreno rinsed Figueiredo. I suspect the same thing will happen this evening.

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Pay-Per-Views

I’m going to say 500,000 pay-per-view buys. Stipe Miocic consistently pulled in 350,000 buys as champion and, all due respect, but Stipe is not promotional gold. Even with the UFC’s greatest effort (more details in a moment), the UFC will be able to make this fight worth half a million dollars if they can provide the necessary ancillary storieslines and the lengthy layoff between pay per-views.

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The quality of the rest of the card.

The conspiracy theorist in me wants to say that the UFC intentionally short-changed this card so that it wouldn’t do that well on pay-per-view, thus limiting Ngannou’s negotiation power and tempering Tyson Fury’s interest in boxing him. It’s possible to make a strong case. However, Occam’s razor would tell us that this card — how to put this nicely — lacks fighters of note because this is largely what UFC cards are these days. They hold 45 events a year and they (for some unknown reason) put between 10 and 15 fights on each card. It’s just not possible to find enough notable fighters. The UFC will be relying on this fight as its main event.

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Best that almost was

Ilia Topuria vs. Movsar Evloev, unquestionably. Two undefeated featherweights, both of whom are likely going to be staples of the top-10 for years to come, going at it in a fascinating clash of styles? Even with the main event, that may have been my most anticipated fight of the card. Evloev’s forced exit was a disappointment, but Topuria has now also booked the fight, so they will be able to rebook the fight and there may even be some heat between them.

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The Oracle

I and I alone (at least among the media) predicted what may well be the greatest upset in MMA history (for my money it is, though obviously I am biased). Yes, I will. Heck, that’s what I’m going to do on my resume.

As far as failed locks, I don’t have to look all that far because it’s also on the short list of greatest upsets ever. Michael Bisping defeating Luke Rockhold for the title was something I have never seen in my entire life. He was stepping in on short notice against a guy who was younger, stronger, faster, and all around better than him, and who just 19 months earlier accomplished the rare feat of both knocking out and submitting Bisping in the same fight. Hell, just a few weeks prior, I wrote an entire article about how Bisping would be the best fighter in history not to compete for a major title, and then he goes and makes me look like the world’s biggest prat. It doesn’t bother me at all, but I still find it surprising, even after all the information we have about Rockhold.

It just shows that even blind squirrels can find a nut from time to time.

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Thank you for reading, and for all the tweets. Do you have any burning questions about things at least somewhat related to combat sports? Then you’re in luck, because you can send your Hot Tweets to me, @JedKMeshew, and I will answer them! It doesn’t matter what they are, it doesn’t really matter. Send them to me and I’ll answer the ones I like the most. Let’s have fun.