Hello, friends! It’s a rare down week in the world of MMA and that means, without fights that demand our attention, we can turn our gaze to all manner of conversations. This week, that means more Colby Covington vs. Jorge Masvidal stuff, Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Brandon Moreno IV, open scoring, and a little UFC 273. Let’s get after it.

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Kayfabe

I’m a firm believer in Occam’s Razor, and so, for me, the simplest and most obvious explanation for Masvidal allegedly assaulting Covington is that Jorge Masvidal absolutely hates Colby Covington and wanted to punch him in his face, consequences be damned. Had Masvidal won their fight at UFC 272, I’m sure he could have moved on from the myriad of horrible things Covington said about his family (or at least, not felt compelled to take things outside the cage), but that’s not how it broke for him, and so he took matters into his own hands when the opportunity presented itself. That being said, I also believe that this alleged altercation presents both men with a great opportunity to make some money, because there really aren’t many fights that make sense for either man, at least not ones that they will be interested in.

Covington is calling for fights with Dustin Poirier and Israel Adesanya. While I think these are great callouts, it’s unlikely that he will get either one. Poirier is holding out for Nate Diaz, and Adesanya has Jared Cannonier and the rest of the middleweight division to keep him occupied. Similarly, Masvidal has made vague overtures about rematching Diaz, but Diaz wants Poirier and the UFC wants Diaz to rematch Conor McGregor for his last fight. Both Masvidal and Covington don’t see the point in fighting other welterweight competitors. For Masvidal, most of the rest of the top-10 would beat him and provides no name value, and while Covington may have more of a chance against some of the other 170-pounders, he obviously believes that’s beneath him now. (He is wrong).

A rematch is an option.

For Covington the fight is another major fight against someone he believes he can defeat, while for Masvidal, it’s a huge fight against someone he really loves to win. It doesn’t matter if their first fight wasn’t competitive. There are legs. This fight is sold by the outside of the cage brawl. Hell, Masvidal wasn’t competitive with Kamaru Usman in their first fight and he got a rematch. These are the same rules, so if I was a gambler (which I am), I would wager that both of them will fight again.

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The flyweight title picture

Because while it may officially be 1-1-1, most people view it as 2-1 in favor of Figueiredo, who probably should have won the first fight even with the point deduction, and clearly was the better man that night. So if Moreno wins again, especially if it’s a close fight, then people aren’t going to feel like Moreno is clearly the best flyweight in the world. That’s why I hate booking the fourth fight.

*I love watching the fights in isolation. Figueiredo & Moreno are my two favorite flyweights. They are equally matched and a fourth fight would be amazing, considering that each fight has been very different. Both men are adjusting and bringing new tactics to the table each time out. It’s peak MMA and it’s beautiful. But it also doesn’t demand to be done right now. Figueiredo can easily fight Kai Kara-France the next time he defends, and then, if Moreno wins, he will fight Moreno the fourth time. It’s a back pocket fight — it’s always there whenever the UFC wants it. It would also be nice to allow the rivalry a bit more room for breathing.

Of course, if Figueiredo goes out and wins this fourth fight, then all of this talk is moot. Figgy Smalls winning will effectively end the rivalry and then it’s on to KKF.

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Open scoring

Neither?

Neither? That can only come from the commissions, which means it won’t come at all.

As for open scoring, I’m not against it — I simply don’t care. I know it’s become a topic of conversation again over the past few weeks and there are staunch supporters on both sides of the argument, but for the life of me I cannot figure out why. It will not change the way fights are judged. This is what MMA’s problem really is. I doubt that open scoring will make any difference in how they play out. The proponents of it mainly argue that it will make fights more exciting because losing fighters will try hard, but the obvious rebuttals to that all ring true to me:

1) OK, but the guy ahead will also fight much more boringly.

2) Fighters usually know when they are ahead or behind anyway.

3) Fighters mostly just fight their hearts out every time they step into the cage, because if they don’t, bad things can happen.

For me, the best argument for open scoring has always been that combat sports are the only sports in which fighters don’t know the scores in real time, which is exceedingly asinine. And that’s a good argument! I absolutely agree with it. But in the words of Peter Gibbons, “It’s that I just don’t care.” If tomorrow everywhere adopted open scoring, that’s fine. Or if they never do, whatever. There are about 47 other major issues in MMA that are in more dire need of attention than this one, and so it remains curious to me that some people feel very strongly about it. But hey, to each their own.

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UFC Rankings

LOL. The UFC ranking panel is: . . not the best. That’s why if you’re looking for MMA rankings, you should use The Only Rankings That Matter.

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Upsets at UFC 273

If I’m ranking them in order of most to least surprising, I’ll go Gilbert Burns, Korean Zombie, and Aljamain Sterling. You can skip this question and let me answer the following: Why do I believe Burns will lose?

I think Alexander Volkanovski is one of the very best fighters in the world, and he may well be the actual best. I’ve said it many times, but Volkanovski, he’s basically the casino. He has the best Fight I.Q. in the game and his ability to adjust, along with the depth of his tool box, means that he has a clear edge over everyone he fights, and so, over time, he’s going to win. But the way you beat the casino, as Danny Ocean once famously said, is to bet big when that perfect hand comes along. Korean Zombie, like Brian Ortega has predatory tendencies. There is always the possibility that he will pull off some ultraviolence to take the title. I don’t believe it will happen, but I do at least concede that it is possible.

And with Sterling, he honestly could win the fight. I mean, he won’t — he’s too erratic of a fighter — but he possesses all the physical tools to upset Petr Yan. Sterling’s length and grappling mean he has legitimate avenues to victory against Yan; the problem is that he panics when the wheels start falling off and he’s also prone to outworking himself, meaning he’s almost certainly going to tire himself out with big, explosive flying knees and stuff because he’s uncomfortable striking and so he feels the need to fill every moment with action. This could prove to be a fascinating fight if Sterling is willing to stand out and fight completely different than ever before. If he doesn’t, he’s going to lose. There is still a way to win.

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Khamzat Chimaev, sizable betting favorite over Gilbert Burns

This line was crazy!

I can tell you that those people are completely wrong.

First, remember that the betting lines don’t reflect fight probabilities. They predict public sentiment and incite action from both ends of the line. That’s how the books make their money, in the vig. So saying “this line is disrespectful” is an indictment of the public, not the oddsmaker, because it’s public perception that determines the line. Also, worth noting, that line should have been opened higher as the public has already bet Khazmat up to -525 on DraftKings.

Second, that line isn’t disrespectful because Khamzat is going to run over Gilbert Burns, and that’s just honesty, not disrespect. Burns is an undersized welterweight who has struggled against wrestlers (his takedown defense rate is 50%). Khamzat is an enormous welterweight who is not only a tremendous wrestler, but also a dominant grappler. Add all of the information about Khamzat. This is just math. Burns deserves all credit for entering this fight. But, he is about to be “smeshed” with something even more fierce.

The Next Big Thing is

Khamzatchimaev. They come around every few years and when they do, it is obvious very quickly that they are here. Jon Jones, Cain Velasqeuz, Khabib Nurmagomedov, Conor McGregor, these are generational talents, and when they arrive, they arrive. Khamzat is one of those. He’ll remain at the top for a long time, but it’s hard to predict. His training habits and many others are prone to failure. But he is going to the top and Gilbert Burns won’t stop him.

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Thanks for reading and thank you for everyone who sent in Tweets! Are you looking for answers to questions that are at least partially related to combat sport? Then you’re in luck, because you can send your Hot Tweets to me, @JedKMeshew, and I will answer them! It doesn’t matter what they are, it doesn’t really matter. You can send them to me, and I will answer those I love the most. Let’s have fun.