The UFC returns to the APEX this Saturday with another Fight Night card, UFC Vegas 69, headlined by a short-notice women’s flyweight bout between Jessica Andrade and Erin Blanchfield. There is not much to report on this weekend. But, a fight is still a fighter card.
As always, all odds are courtesy of our friends at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Photo by Buda Mendes/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Straight Bets
Jessica Andrade, -135
If it weren’t for the fact that Andrade is taking this fight on a week’s notice, I would feel exceedingly confident in this bet. Don’t get me wrong, I love Erin Blanchfield. As a prospect, I have been very high on Erin Blanchfield and claimed repeatedly that she would one day be the flyweight champion. This is just too much and too quickly. Blanchfield’s game is heavily reliant on her ability to score takedowns and dictate the grappling exchanges, and when she hasn’t been able to do that, those are the moments we’ve seen her struggle. JJ Aldrich was dinging Blanchfield up on the feet, and with all due respect to Aldrich, Andrade is bringing far more to bear in the striking realm. It is now up to Blanchfield to score the takedowns, and Andrade’s cardio endurance. Both should be passed with flying colours, I believe.
There’s something to be said here for betting the Andrade Inside The Distance prop at +110, but with the short-notice factor, and the fact that we’ve never seen Blanchfield stopped before, I’m erring on the side of caution.
William Knight, -120
This is one of those matches that Knight should win on paper. However, things become murkier when both men are fighting.
Knight is a physical specimen, with powerful takedowns and monstrous punches, but that power comes at the cost of a questionable gas tank. Prachnio, meanwhile, doesn’t jump off the page athletically, but he’s a big, physical guy who keeps up a good pace. Prachnio’s problem is that he doesn’t have the endurance and is a terrible defensive wrestler. Knight can shut Prachnio down with one punch and, if necessary, score takedowns. Philipe Lins knocked Prachnio repeatedly so Knight should be capable of doing the same for him if he begins to fade.
Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC
Prop Bets
Philipe Lins by KO/TKO/DQ, +240
Lins will be taking on Ovince Saint Preux, the former interim heavyweight champion in this fight. It could prove to be a terrible one. OSP has looked like a shell of himself the past couple of years, and while Lins is no one’s idea of a world-beater, he’s still at least giving a decent account of himself more often than not. Add in that OSP’s previous two losses were both by knockout, and that eight of Lins’ 15 career wins have come that same way, and that’s how you end up with this bet.
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
Parlay of the Week
Mayra Bueno Silva, -475
Lina Lansberg has not won a fight since 2019. MBS has won three fights in that time. We need not overthink this.
Jessica Andrade/Erin Blanchfield Over 1. 5 Rounds, -225
This is the riskiest leg of the parlay because Jessica Andrade can up the violence meter at any point in time. Blanchfield is a solid player throughout her career, so it’s not likely that Blanchfield will finish Andrade fast, even though she does score early takesdowns.
Jordan Wright/Zac Pauga Does Not Got To Decision, -650
In Wright’s 17-fight career, he has never gone to decision. The man simply hates judges and feels they should not be involved in the sport. Pauga has, however, been much more likely to require judges. However, Wright insists on getting things done and Pauga will be forced to comply.
Parlay these three bets together for +101 odds.
Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC
Long Shot of the Week
Jim Miller to win in Round 2, +900
Shoutout to Conner Burks for this one, as I liked Miller as an underdog, before Conner pointed out that four of Alexander Hernandez’s last five losses have come in the second round and Miller has scored three straight second round finishes. You can’t argue with mathematics like that. If you’re feeling particularly frisky, you could instead look at Miller by Submission in Round 2 at +1200, or my personal favorite, Miller by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 2 at +2500.
Wrap Up
Wow. Uh, about last week. Sheesh! I knew UFC 284 might be tricky, but that was historically bad, which means we’ve dug ourselves a hole. This, combined with the fact that this card has been so bleak, mean we are keeping it light this weekend. We want to put some numbers up and get our feet back on the right track. Hopefully it works.
Enjoy the fighting, luck and gambling responsibly until next week!
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Source: https://www.mmafighting.com/2023/2/17/23602741/ufc-vegas-69-gambling-preview-can-jessica-andrade-earn-another-title-shot-erin-blanchfield?rand=96749
