UFC Vegas 62 gambling preview: Can Alexa Grasso punch her ticket to a flyweight title shot?

UFC Fight Night: Assuncao v Simon

After taking yet another week off, the UFC returns this Saturday with UFC Vegas 62, headlined by a women’s flyweight fight between Alexa Grasso and Viviane Araujo. It’s a bit of a lackluster card (plus we lost Askar Askarov vs. Brandon Royval), so I’ve only got one straight bet this week, but with UFC 280 just around the corner, any excuse to lay some action down beforehand and build the bankroll is a welcome one. Let’s move on.

As always, all odds are courtesy of our friends at DraftKings Sportsbook.

UFC Fight Night: Assuncao v Simon

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Straight Bets

Raphael Assuncao, +320

This is an extremely risky bet but the odds are compelling me to take it. Yes, Assuncao is 40 years old, has lost four in a row, and hasn’t fought in 10 months, but Victor Henry is not some world beater. He’s a solid veteran who spent most of his career in Japan, he’s 35 years old, and Assuncao is the best opponent he’s ever faced. Although Henry did look good in his UFC debut fight, Assuncao has made it a profession of challenging people just like Henry. If Assuncao has any juice left, the line should be tighter here, so I’m taking a shot at long odds.

UFC 258: Barber v Grasso

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Prop Bets

Alexa Grasso/Viviane Araujo Does Not Go To Decision, +150

One of my bolder bets this week, but I just have a feeling about it. The numbers don’t back me up, with nine of Grasso’s 15 wins coming by decision and Araujo going to the scorecards in six straight bouts before this, but a key difference between those fights and this one is that this is a five-rounder. Both Grasso, Araujo, and their UFC careers were good finishers. With a title shot at stake in this fight, it seems like both ladies are out to make a statement. Although they may need to go to extra rounds in order to make their point, one will be able to do it.

Alonzo Menifield By KO/TKO/DQ, +100

I like Menifield just fine but this bet isn’t about him, it’s about fading Misha Cirkunov. Cirkunov is 35 and has lost six of his last eight fights. That’s a really bad sign. Even worse, he’s moving back up to light heavyweight after a brief, failed attempt to make a run at 185 pounds. If a fighter is constantly moving around in weight classes looking for the answer, it is usually a sign that they are done. Cirkunov is certainly an example of this. I expect Menifield will be able maintain his standing in the ring and score the power shots that would put Canadians away.

UFC Fight Night: Holm v Vieira

Photo by Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC

Parlay of the Week

Jonathan Martinez (-205) and Mana Martinez (-150)

I’m not above a gimmick bet, and doing the Martinez parlay is absolutely that (there’s also a Rodriguez parlay available on this card but I’m not doing that for reasons I’ll explain later). It’s also a great bet, which is a blessing.

I love Cub Swanson, but he’s about to be 39 and he’s going to be making his bantamweight debut. There’s simply no way this ends well. Martinez is an experienced fighter and should be able beat the “Killer Cub .”

” version from his past.

For the other leg, Mana Martinez is showing some real promise as a prospect. He needs to shore up the wrestling, but that’s not Brandon Davis’ game, and on the feet, I think he’s cleaner and more effective. Martinez is also a James Krause fighter so it’s likely he will come with a great game plan.

Parlay these two bets together for +147 odds.

UFC Fight Night: Barry v Jackson

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Long Shot of the Week

Mike Jackson By Decision, +1800

I don’t believe Mike Jackson (or whatever that is these days) to be a UFC fighter of any caliber. Pete Rodriguez is not a UFC-caliber fighter, at least so far. Rodriguez has four wins in his pro career, against opponents with a combined record of 7-4. Although he has a bit of an amateur record, Rodriguez is still incredibly talented and should not be considered a major favorite. I think it’s fair to take a flyer on Jackson straight at +500 on sheer principle, and a long shot on Jackson by Decision at +1800 is worth a tiny stab.

Wrap Up

Man, we are on a heater right now! We’ve been killing it for the last few months, with another winning week on our last outing. I’ll be honest, I don’t feel as confident this week as I have the last few, but let’s keep taking shots and hopefully this money train stays on the tracks.

Enjoy the fighting, luck and gambling responsibly until next week!

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