Rafael dos Anjos and Rafael Fiziev are crossing paths at just the right time.
Saturday’s UFC Vegas 58 features not just two of the best lightweights in the world — “RDA” is No. 7 in MMA Fighting’s Global Rankings, Fiziev No. 10 — but two contenders who could be knocking on the door of a title shot with a memorable performance.
Dos Anjos, a former UFC champion, has long maintained that even as he approaches his 38th birthday, he has not given up on once again contending for a belt. After a run at 170 pounds that saw him compete for interim gold, the Brazilian veteran has gone 2-0 since dropping back down in weight. Should he fend off Fiziev, he’ll line himself up for an even higher ranked challenge in the near future.
The stakes for Fiziev are obvious. His spectacular knockout of Brad Riddell this past December gave him a signature victory over a top 15 opponent and quality names like Bobby Green and Renato Moicano have also been part of his five-fight win streak, but knocking off a fighter that has actually held a title in MMA’s deepest division? You can just about mark him down for a top 5 opponent next.
In other main card action, promising middleweights Caio Borralho and Armen Petrosyan meet in a clash of styles, bantamweight blue-chipper Said Nurmagomedov takes on his biggest challenge yet in Douglas Silva de Andrade, heavyweights Jared Vanderaa and Chase Sherman look to stop their skids, Cynthia Calvillo welcomes Nina Nunes to the flyweight division, and Michael Johnson makes his 26th UFC appearance when he fights Jamie Mullarkey in a lightweight bout.
What: UFC Vegas 58
Where : UFC APEX Las Vegas
When: Saturday, July 9. The six-fight preliminary card begins at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN and ESPN+, followed by a six-fight main card at 9 p.m. on ESPN and ESPN+.
Rafael dos Anjos vs. Rafael Fiziev
Few fighters are better than Rafael dos Anjos. But will this be enough to stop the dangerous Rafael Fiziev from taking his place?
“RDA” won’t shy away from a standup scrap, even given Fiziev’s well-earned reputation as an endlessly creative striker. The former lightweight champ has outstanding boxing himself and it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he beats Fiziev on the feet. That said, as most have surmised, dos Anjos is best served mixing in his top-shelf grappling to prevent Fiziev from getting into his comfort zone.
From what we’ve seen, Fiziev has the takedown defense to keep this fight where he wants it to be, though he’s yet to face an opponent with dos Anjos’ blend of jiu-jitsu expertise and experience. Not only does he have to prove that he can stay upright, but that he can scramble and get back up in the event that dos Anjos does take him down.
It’s an 8-year gap, which also means that Fiziev has an athleticism advantage. That’s why I love his chances. He’s yet to be tested in a five-rounder, but the early damage he does in this fight should make up for any cardio advantage that dos Anjos may have in the later rounds. Although it will be close and controversial, I believe Fiziev will win a decision.
Pick: Fiziev
Caio Borralho vs. Armen Petrosyan
Let’s not overthink it: This is a classic grappler vs. striker matchup.
Caio Borralho is a Demian Maia-tested Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt with a ground game that puts an equal emphasis on damage and position. Armen Petrosyan, a skilled striker, is not related to Kickboxing’s famous Petrosyan brothers Giorgio or Armen. He showed tremendous poise against Gregory Rodrigues in his UFC debut, his eighth MMA fight.
If this one stays on its feet, it should be entertaining as Borralho is known for his penchant to break out of showy strikes. In that situation, you will need to choose the technical Petrosyan.
Petrosyan’s takedown defense didn’t look great against Rodrigues and he was probably fortunate to walk out of that encounter with a split nod. Had Rodrigues mixed the martial arts more, Petrosyan might not have made it to the judges’ decision. Borralho won’t make the same error.
Borralho by submission.
Pick: Borralho
Douglas Silva de Andrade vs. Said Nurmagomedov
Said Nurmagomedov hasn’t shown many significant weaknesses in his UFC career so far, but he has had difficulties fighting off of the back foot. That’s something the typically aggressive Douglas Silva de Andrade can take advantage of.
On defense, Nurmagomedov is capable of landing damaging counters, but once the distance is completely closed he can be roughed up inside. Fortunately for him, he also has strong wrestling so he can change the complexion of the fight that way if Silva de Andrade makes this one messy. If Nurmagomedov can keep Silva de Andrade in range, he will cruise to victory.
Silva de Andrade has only lost to quality 135ers, a list that includes only Petr Yan and Rob Font. Nurmagomedov is a talented player, however Nurmagomedov must show more gear in order to compete with Silva de Andrade.
My prediction for this compelling bantamweight matchup is that Nurmagomedov shows off more of his grappling to keep Silva de Andrade in check and tire him out, setting him up for a late submission.
Pick: Nurmagomedov
Jared Vanderaa vs. Chase Sherman
Chase Sherman and Jared Vanderaa have their backs against the wall.
In his past five outings, Vanderaa is 1-4. Sherman, on the other hand, has been beaten in four consecutive fights. He was released just recently and then brought back as an opponent to the truly frightening Alexandr Romanov. These guys deserve a win.
Conventional wisdom would suggest the more well-rounded Vanderaa could earn the decision by establishing his jab and threatening Sherman with takedowns. Conventional wisdom can be boring so I chose chaos. I choose Sherman throwing caution to the wind and letting his hands go to turn this fight into a slopfest.
At that point, this being heavyweight, it’s at toss-up, but Sherman is the more proven knockout artist and I expect that to narrative to be reinforced on Saturday. It could happen 30 seconds into Round 1 or or with 10 seconds left in Round 3, all I know is I’ve got a feeling that Sherman surprises the doubters with a big KO.
Pick: Sherman
Cynthia Calvillo vs. Nina Nunes
This is essentially a strawweight fight where the fighters didn’t put themselves through through the rigors of an extreme weight cut and more power to them for that.
Cynthia Calvillo was a legitimate contender at 115 pounds, but she was repeatedly tripped up by the scale and made the wise decision to jump up to 125. Nina Nunes is making her UFC debut at 125 pounds after a strong strawweight run that included wins over Claudia Gadelha and Angela Hill, plus a competitive loss to Tatiana Suarez (who hasn’t fought since) in June 2019.
I’ve always believed in Calvillo’s potential. Calvillo brings an aggressive style of wrestling to the cage. She has good pop and her striking technique isn’t up to par in any division she’s competed. That includes Nunes, who has always been sharp on the feet and difficult to put away. Calvillo will be frustrated by Nunes’ distance control, which she uses to turn up the volume during the second part of the fight.
I don’t think Nunes will stop Calvillo taking downs for the three rounds. Calvillo, who is also a very busy fighter on ground, will rack up a lot of points on scorecards on her way to the crucial decision win.
Pick: Calvillo
Michael Johnson vs. Jamie Mullarkey
Michael Johnson has been beaten by the greatest of them all. On Saturday, he has a developing brawler standing across from him, the kind of challenge he hasn’t faced since he was positioned as Justin Gaethje’s first UFC opponent. Jamie Mullarkey is known for his consistent pressure and he’s going to try to overwhelm Johnson.
The more experienced Johnson has always had fast hands and good knockout power, but I’m curious to see how he reacts if his best shots don’t put Mullarkey away early. Mullarkey makes excellent use of head movement to move the bullseye as he marches forward, then knows when to load up if he smells blood. The longer this fight goes on, the more I expect Mullarkey to gain confidence and pull away.
Look for Mullarkey to overcome a solid start from Johnson and find the finish in Round 3.
Pick: Mullarkey
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