One could be forgiven for feeling like this weekend’s UFC effort has a “leftovers” vibe to it.
After all, Saturday’s UFC Vegas 48 headliner between fringe light heavyweight contenders Johnny Walker and Jamahal Hill is literally what was left over after the originally scheduled headliner was swapped out. We were supposed to settle the War of the Rafaels tonight, but issues with Rafael Fiziev’s visa forced his bout against Rafael dos Anjos to be moved to UFC 272 next month.
So this is what we’ve got to work with.
Calling Walker a fringe contender at this point might sound generous given his struggles against ranked competition, including a forgettable decision loss to Thiago Santos in his most recent outing. Walker had been mentioned as a potential challenge to Jon Jones not long ago (I swear this was an actual conversation) and it is possible that Walker could be back in contention with a string of strong victories. Stranger things have happened!
Contrarially, Hill could be just one loss from the UFC pink slip. This outcome is possible considering how Hill has performed in his five UFC appearances and one Contender Series fight. Hill is long and rangy and has a nose for the finish, the latter quality especially making him a favorite of the matchmakers. That hype that was once Walker’s could easily become Hill’s with another fast finish on Saturday.
In other main card action, Kyle Daukaus meets late replacement Jamie Pickett in a 195-pound catchweight bout, heavyweights Parker Porter and Alan Baudot face off, lightweight lifer Jim Miller makes UFC appearance No. 39 against octagon newcomer Nikolas Motta, and middleweights Joaquin Buckley and Abdul Razak Alhassan race for a first-round knockout.
What: UFC Vegas 48
Where: UFC APEX in Las Vegas
When: Saturday, Feb. 19. The seven-fight preliminary card begins on ESPN+ at 4 p.m. ET, followed by a five-fight main card on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET.
Johnny Walker vs. Jamahal Hill
Johnny Walker is more important here. While being a injured animal in MMA can often mean you are about to be properly killed, I believe that Walker will feel a sense of urgency and move in the right direction. Because if it doesn’t, it’s going to be a short night for the lively Brazilian.
We’ve seen Walker in his prime. He’s an incredible athlete with natural power and a wild streak that endeared him to fans early in his UFC career. However, once he ran into more seasoned and methodical competition, he hit the wall. Hard. Walker cannot be that tentative Walker we saw in Thiago Santos’ fight. Walker never seemed to pose a threat in that fight. That won’t stand against Hill.
Hill will push the action if he senses that Walker is biding his time too much. Hill is sacrificing some length and size, but I believe he has the speed and technique necessary to compensate. He’ll be looking to make a statement with a finish here, not just outpoint Walker.
This is a favorable scenario for Walker as he will need to fight an aggressive opponent on Saturday. After he has tuned in I prefer his striking to Hill’s, and I love his chance of hurting Hill at some point with a counter. It is unclear if he will be able capitalize on recent training changes that have weakened his ability to finish.
I have faith that there is still some vintage Johnny Walker left in the bottle and he pours it on for a knockout victory.
Pick: Walker
Kyle Daukaus vs. Jamie Pickett
Jamie Pickett’s goal here should be to play keep-away from Kyle Daukaus as long as possible. He’s been blessed with 80 inches of reach, a huge advantage at 185 pounds, and good cardio. Those attributes can take you a long way in the UFC, but he’s lacking that one skill that sets him apart.
The same can’t be said for Daukaus, a strong wrestler with outstanding jiu-jitsu. He’ll have to be on point with his entries because Pickett has good takedown defense and he’ll be looking to sting Daukaus with counter punches. Pickett should control the game and defend takedowns against Pickett’s fence. Daukaus will be looking to beat Pickett deep in his tank.
If Daukaus is unable to get a submission look out for one of those fights in which Daukaus creates enough offense after his takedowns that Pickett’s feet can be hurt.
Daukaus by decision.
Pick: Daukaus
Parker Porter vs. Alan Baudot
This isn’t too bad of a matchup for Alan Baudot to get his first UFC win. He has already proven that he is capable of cracking, but he needs to work on his focus and defense. If he is to face the Parker Porter pressure, he will have to improve his performance.
Porter may look like Derrick Lewis, but he relies on volume for drowning his opponents. He has a deceptively deep gas tank and can keep a steady pace going even in the third round. And if he takes Baudot down, he’ll probably finish with ground-and-pound.
I expect that to happen, but after a competitive first frame. Baudot will want to get the jump on Porter early and if he can set the tone on the feet, he could put Porter down for the count. However, I’m predicting that Porter weathers an early storm, turns the tide and then finishes late in Round 2 or early in Round 3.
Pick: Porter
Jim Miller vs. Nikolas Motta
As mentioned above, Jim Miller is about to extend his UFC record for most appearances to 39. Here are the UFC records of the past three opponents Miller has been booked to face:
Joe Solecki: 2-0
Erick Gonzalez: 0-0
Nikolas Motta: 0-0
I say this without sarcasm or cynicism, that is some incredible matchmaking. This is how respected veterans like Miller should be handled. Miller should be treated with respect. He can increase his statistics in moderate-reward fights against unknown property where it is almost inconsequential if he loses or wins. All that matters is that he continues on his relentless march towards UFC No. 40 and then UFC 300 sometime in 2025.
That’s not to say that Motta doesn’t have a lot to fight for here. The 29-year-old Brazilian has plenty of buzz behind him even after a trio of bout cancellations prevented him from making his debut last year. He’s a compact and crisp striker with the kind of hand speed that should have fans of “A-10” genuinely concerned for Miller’s well-being. Miller loves to exchange shots. However, it would be sad to see him at the end of a high-profile knockout at this point in his career.
So I’m going with Miller to use his grappling to avoid the worst of Motta’s offense and then rely on his experience to carry him the rest of the way. If Motta has a weakness right now it’s his ground game, so you can bank on Miller testing Motta in that department. If the upstart is lacking, then Miller could snag a submission and get his 10th finish, which would break a tie with Joe Lauzon for the most finishes in UFC history at 155 pounds.
Just what the man needs, another record.
Pick: Miller
Joaquin Buckley vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan
It almost seems foolish to even attempt to make an educated guess about a matchup like this when you’ve got two fighters in Joaquin Buckley and Abdul Razak Alhassan with such explosive knockout potential. Both fighters can be expected to be bonus hunters.
Alhassan is the one with the best track record in first round finishes. It’s also how he has won every of his fights. Buckley should not face Alhassan until he can get to know Alhassan’s style. Buckley is always looking for a highlight, but he’ll know better than to just go charging into Alhassan’s buzz saw limbs.
Once he’s gathered some data, Buckley can start to be more aggressive and string together his strikes, picking away at Alhassan until he can break through the defense and land something big. I’ve got Buckley taking Alhassan out in the second round.
Pick: Buckley
Preliminaries
Gabriel Benitez def. David Onama
Jessica-Rose Clark def. Stephanie Egger
Chas Skelly def. Mark Striegl
Diana Belbita def. Gloria de Paula
Chad Anheliger def. Jesse Strader
Jonathan Pearce def. Christian Rodriguez
Jay Perrin def. Mario Bautista
