UFC 284 predictions

Islam Makhachev and Alexander Volkanovski aren’t taking the easy route, that’s for sure.

After their title victories, the headliners of Saturday’s UFC lightweight champions could have kept to their respective divisions, and fought off an array of challenging fighters. Instead, Makhachev called out UFC featherweight champion, who happens to also be No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter in the world — and Volkanovski answered with vigor, eager to stifle what was supposed to be the beginning of a dominant lightweight title run for Makhachev.

So that’s really all that’s on the line in the UFC 284 main event: Pound-for-pound greatness. The longest current unbeaten streak in the UFC (Volkanovski leads the way with 12 straight wins, Makhachev is just shy with 11). Immortality.

A loss shouldn’t damage either fighter’s career prospects too much. Makhachev just turned 31 and he’s a prime candidate to compete for UFC titles in the future, whether it be at 155 or 170 pounds. Volkanovski can always return to 145 pounds and continue what has already been an outstanding championship reign, with Yair Rodriguez, Josh Emmett, Arnold Allen, Ilia Topuria and jockeying for their shot at “The Great.”

Beyond all that, we’re being treated to a rare delight in combat sports: Two of the undisputed best in their respective weight classes throwing caution to the wind for the chance to prove themselves on the biggest stage, consequences be damned. It will be a long time before we see such a unique test again.

In other main card action, Rodriguez and Emmett battle for an interim featherweight title, Jack Della Maddalena looks to continue his scorching UFC start against veteran Randy Brown, heavyweights Justin Tafa and Parker Porter hunt for a highlight, and Jimmy Crute returns to face Alonzo Menifield in a light heavyweight bout.

What: UFC 284

Where: RAC Arena in Perth, Australia

When: Saturday, Feb. 11. The card begins with a five-fight early prelims portion on ESPN+ at 6 p.m. ET, with continuing coverage of the four-fight prelim card on ESPN and ESPN+ beginning at 8 p.m. ET. The five-fight main card begins at 10 p.m. {ET and is available exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view.

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(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in MMA Fighting’s Global Rankings)

Islam Makhachev (1) vs. Alexander Volkanovski (1, FW)

When this fight was announced for the first time, I was certain that Islam Makhachev would win. Alexander Volkanovski is too big to stop him taking down his opponents for five rounds. There’s no one at lightweight right now who I’d pick to beat him, so how is a featherweight going to do it, even if it is arguably the best featherweight I’ve ever seen?

Then I considered Volkanovski’s strengths. Beyond his elite striking, unreal speed, and heavy hands, he’s one of the best at adapting on the fly. We’ve seen him weather the slings and arrows of Max Holloway, Brian Ortega, Jose Aldo, and Chad Mendes, and each time he’s fired back with unmatched intelligence and ferocity. He is able to imagine himself surviving Makhachev’s initial rush, and pulling away during the final rounds.

Maybe it’s Makhachev who has more to prove here, as he’s rarely taken a misstep since suffering the lone loss of his career, a first-round knockout at the hands of Adriano Martins that reads more like a trivia question answer than a blueprint on how to deal with him. After all, there’s a downside to domination: No one knows how you’ll react when it doesn’t look so simple. And nothing about fighting Volkanovski is simple.

Over and over, various permutations of these arguments swirled in my mind, and you’ve probably watched other pundits agonize over these same questions. This internal battle was over, so I let it go. I reminded myself that fighting can be elementary.

I came back to this: Makhachev is larger. Volkanovski can’t stop his takedowns for five rounds. There’s no one at lightweight that can beat him and I doubt any featherweight can either. Most importantly, no matter what, this fight will be awesome.

That’s how I’ve arrived at Makhachev by decision in a tense five-rounder that will leave the door open for a rematch, even though it’s unlikely to happen.

Pick: Makhachev

Yair Rodriguez (4) vs. Josh Emmett (7)

Like the main event, I’m taking this one at face value.

On paper, you can see that Yair Rod has the technique and creativity while Josh Emmett is more grit and power. That’s not to say that Rodriguez doesn’t have one-shot finish potential nor that Emmett is lacking in the technical department, but each man has a distinct path to victory and we know this based on recent performances.

Rodriguez has the edge in competition quality. He lost five rounds to Max Holloway, but he also had cage time with Chan Sung Jung and Frankie Edgar, with wildly different degrees of success. You can bet Rodriguez has learned much even from his most humiliating defeats. All of these lessons culminated in the creation of this contender. After years of failures and successes, he deserves to fight for the title.

Emmett has never felt like a favored son of the UFC, maybe due to his tendency to let his fists do the talking rather than cut a scorching post-fight promo. But he’s put together a solid highlight reel and done enough to earn decisions against some hard-nosed scrappers, which is how he finds himself in this position.

Technique and speed is at the top of my list when it comes to picking striking battles, so Rodriguez gets the edge there too especially with his knack for avoiding big punches. He’ll be really tested in grappling, where Emmett offers the possibility of taking to his wrestling. This could drastically change the tone.

I’m confident Rodriguez’s takedown defense will hold up and that his expansive kicking game will be the difference in the standup, so I’m picking him to earn a decision nod.

Pick: Rodriguez

Jack Della Maddalena vs. Randy Brown

With three outstanding UFC performances under his belt, it’s time for Jack Della Maddalena to step up, and he can’t go much higher than Randy Brown at this stage of his career.

Della Maddalena faces many significant obstacles with

“Rude Boy”. He’s a towering welterweight, he’s comfortable fighting orthodox or southpaw (as is Della Maddelena), and he has offensive grappling in his back pocket if it comes down to it. He will have to put in the work if Della Maddalena wants to achieve four consecutive knockouts.

Fortunately for the fast-rising Australian, he’s equipped with some of the crispest boxing in the welterweight division. Della Maddalena is more than just a powerhouse. His striker is a calculated and powerful striker who has a good sense for finishing. He senses when his opponent cracks under pressure and unloads their defenses.

He can take Brown out early. I’m sure he will be very impressed. Della Maddalena’s distance striking is exceptional and it’s going to take her at least one round. The winner of the jab battle will be in the lead. I think Maddalena should win this fight after taking some damage. It’s in the second where he’ll push Brown to the fence, ramp up the volume, and put him away.

Pick: Della Maddalena

Justin Tafa vs. Parker Porter

Porter Porter, a heavyweight grinder is an honor. Porter should not be ashamed that he doesn’t have the dynamite to chuck hammers like the top big men.

That’s in contrast to Justin Tafa, a deceptively shifty fighter who ends fights in a hurry. Tafa is going to use plenty of lateral movement to keep Porter from smothering him, sniping in short shots as he loads up for a rocket down the middle. Where Porter has a significant advantage is in his ability to keep a decent pace for three rounds, something Tafa hasn’t shown he’s capable of yet.

It’s simple: If it goes to the judges, Porter likely wins; if it doesn’t, it’s because Tafa caught him with something in Round 1. The latter scenario is my preference, as Tafa will get a huge boost from the Anzac crowd.

Pick: Tafa

Jimmy Crute vs. Alonzo Menifield

Jimmy Crute is only 26, but I already have concerns about the injuries he’s dealt with and the damage he’s taken in his fights. On the other hand, he finally had the chance to take some time off to recover and that could be just what he needed to turn things around.

Crute’s best moments are when he is not only trading in his pocket, but also mixing martial arts with his opponent and trying to keep them guessing. That’s key to getting past Menifield, one of the most potent punchers in the 205-pound division. Can Crute resist the temptation to headhunt and chase a bonus? I’m not so sure.

Even if Crute utilizes takedowns, Menifield is slippery. Crute is a strong athlete and can move well, so he might waste energy trying to make this a ground fight. If this goes into the later rounds, Crute will need all the gas he can muster to keep Menifield from connecting.

I’m probably overlooking Crute here, but my gut tells me that Menifield knocks him out.

Pick: Menifield

Preliminaries

Tyson Pedro def. Modestas Bukauskas

Joshua Culibao def. Melsik Baghdasaryan

Kleydson Rodrigues def. Shannon Ross

Jamie Mullarkey def. Francisco Prado

Jack Jenkins def. Don Shainis

Loma Lookboonmee def. Elise Reed

Blake Bilder def. Shane Young

Zubaira Tukhugov def. Elves Brenner

Source: https://www.mmafighting.com/2023/2/11/23594262/ufc-284-predictions?rand=96749