It’s the Super Bowl of MMA, with UFC 276 going down Saturday at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The card, which is the most important week of MMA in the year’s history, has a lot to offer. The main event is a middleweight title fight between Israel Adesanya, the co-main event is a featherweight title trilogy bout between Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway, and the rest of the card features four other ranked fighters, one former champion, two future Hall of Famers, and six highly touted prospects. Each fight is outstanding, so let’s move on to the good stuff.
All odds are provided by DraftKings ..
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Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC
Straight Bets
Max Holloway, +170 (37% Implied Probability)
This is the easiest card bet to place. Both Volkanovski & Holloway have previously fought twice. While Volkanovski won both of those fights, many believed Holloway should win the second. In that second fight, Holloway clearly won the opening 10 minutes, and though Volkanovski adjusted and scraped out a win, Holloway now knows he can do the same again. The odds of this fight being close should mean that they are close enough to be a pick-em. Because they aren’t, taking a value play on Holloway is a good bet.
Robbie Lawler, -120 (54. 5% Implied Win Probability)
*I can understand some of the logic, but this was what shocked me the most. Robbie Lawler may not be in his prime but Bryan Barbarena’s matchup is perfect for him. Lawler’s recent struggles have all come against fighters who could take him down and did so repeatedly. Barbarena won’t do that. He’s a tough-as-nails scrapper, but he doesn’t have the power, diversity, or acumen of Lawler on the feet, and as such, he’s going to mostly get tuned up while coming forward. I think Lawler can win both a technical kickboxing fight or a straight-up brawl, and so I love him to win.
Jalin Turner, -150 (60% Implied Win Probability)
Jalin Turner is my favorite. He is an excellent prospect in the lightweight division. If he continues to gain weight, which is difficult given his size, he could be a serious contender for the title. Turner is enormous for 155, an excellent wrestler and grappler, and an extremely dangerous striker. Turner is a formidable athlete, and he has the potential to be a serious contender. At only 27 years old, Turner is still developing as a fighter, and Brad Riddell presents a challenge as well-coached, savvy veteran, but Turner is simply too dangerous in all phases. Turner is a stronger, more aggressive striker and more dangerous on the ground. Add in the rate at which he is developing and you should have a “The Tarantula .”
” coming-out party.
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Esther Lin, MMA Fighting
Prop Bets
Sean O’Malley by Decision, +150 (40% Implied Win Probability)
This line has already dropped a lot, which makes sense because it should be even money in the first place. O’Malley may be a very powerful offensive force but is not recklessly aggressive. He has always been happy to outpoint fighters and this is what he must do because Pedro Munhoz can take a beating like a coffin nail. In his 27 career bouts, Munhoz has never been finished. Munhoz doesn’t have the footwork, speed, or volume to keep up with O’Malley, but he damn sure has the chin to make him work the full 15.
Donald Cerrone by KO/TKO, +400 (20% Implied Win Probability)
This is probably the dumbest bet I made on the card, but I can’t talk myself out of it. Although Donald Cerrone isn’t winning in six of his fights and Jim Miller has a 2-fight winning streak it feels like all that smoke is just smoke. Miller has been beating Contender Series debutants and unpolished rookies, while Cerrone has been losing to some of the best in the world. He will be able to take a step back against someone who is as experienced as him, and prove that he hasn’t washed thoroughly, or even heavily rinsed. Remember, Cerrone and Miller fought once before and Cerrone delivered a devastating head-kick KO. He can repeat it if he does it once.
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Esther Lin, MMA Fighting
Parlay of the Week
Israel Adesanya, -450 (81. 8% Implied Win Probability)
I don’t know if y’all know this, but Israel Adesanya is pretty good at kickboxing. Like, he might be the best we’ve ever seen at it in MMA. This is a tough fight for Jared Cannonier who has only two takedowns recorded in his UFC career. Cannonier may be a great fighter but this fight is too much for him. For a more in-depth breakdown of this fight, you can turn here, but the short version is: I don’t like to use the word “lock” that often, but I would be stunned if Adesanya didn’t get the job done.
Andre Muniz, -320 (76. 2% Implied Win Probability)
You how I love Jalin Turner as a prospect? I love Andre Muniz even more. At 32 years old, he may be out of the prospect zone, but this man has been a monster since joining the UFC off the Contender Series in 2019. He has submitted Ronaldo Souza in the first round of his last three fights. Tap Jacare and you’ll be able to tap any other human on this planet. That includes Uriah hall.
Maycee Barber, – 285 (74% Implied Win Probability)
I’m not nearly as high on Barber as some are (including Barber herself), but I am incredibly low on Jessica Eye. Eye is almost 36 years old, hasn’t won a fight in three years (a bout she missed weight for), and wasn’t even a great fighter at her peak. Barber may not be a complete product but her athleticism, power, and aggression should make her a formidable opponent.
Parlay these three bets together for +116 (46. 3% Implied Win Probability) odds.
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Esther Lin, MMA Fighting
Long Shot of the Week
Max Holloway To Win By Split or Majority Decision, +1100
* For all of the above reasons, but even more. Given that the fight they had before was split, I find it surprising to see their line so high. While I think Volkanovski is slightly better, these two men are in a dead heat, and with the Fight To Be Won By Split or Majority Decision prop only coming in at +350, this feels like value.
Wrap Up
If you listened to No Bets Barred this week, you’ll know that Conner and I got a little crazy, putting bets down on every single fight on the card. For this, I tried to be slightly more responsible with my bets, but if there’s a fight you want to gamble on that I didn’t suggest some action for, give that a listen and maybe me, Conner, or New York Ric have something you’ll like.
Enjoy the fighting, luck and gambling responsibly.
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