It’s a heavyweight doubleheader this weekend with UFC Vegas 68 and Bellator 290 taking place on Saturday in Las Vegas and Inglewood, Calif., respectively. The UFC’s Derrick Lewis will face Sergey Spivac. Bellator’s heavyweight champion Ryan Bader takes on the legendary Fedor Emelinenko in their final fight. There’s no time to waste so let’s hop to it.
As always, all odds are courtesy of our friends at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Photo by Masashi Hara/Getty Images
Straight Bets
Fedor Emelianenko, +270
If Fedor wasn’t obvious by now, it is my love. This is entirely an emotional pick, and it’s objectively wrong. Bader has almost all of the advantages and won handily not that long ago. But I’ll be damned if I’m going to go against “The Last Emperor” on his final walk. The man has given me too much. I don’t know how it happens. Fedor could clip Bader too early or choke him out like Tim Sylvia. I hope he does the latter, but it’s hard to believe.
Jesus Santos Aguilar, +750
Don’t bet a full unit on this one. I’m in for just a flyer, but JSA is a serviceable fighter, and these odds are super long. Don’t get me wrong, Tatsuro Taira is the truth, but he’s also still only 23. This young man is too young to deserve this kind of respect. I am taking a shot at the possibility that he fumbles with the ball.
Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images
Prop Bets
Derrick Lewis by KO/TKO/DQ, +240
Perhaps I’m just being bamboozled by “Fit Derrick Lewis,” but have you seen the man now? The Black Beast is now trimmed and ready to go. It is possible that Lewis’ recent changes in physique coincide with a similar performance change, which could make for a very unfortunate night for Sergey Spivac. Although Lewis may have lost his last four matches, they were very very different matchups. Spivac will be looking to wrestle. While Lewis doesn’t excel at taking down takedowns statistically, he is great at getting up on his feet. I believe Lewis is able to fend off Spivac’s best efforts and get things moving with the old lunch boxes. At that point, it’s goodbye, Irene.
Marcin Tybura by Decision, +150
If there’s a finish in this fight, I’ll eat my hat. Blagoy Ivanov hasn’t been finished since 2014, the lone stoppage loss of his career, and he hasn’t earned a finish of his own since 2017. Tybura’s performance is slightly better. He still won four of his six previous fights. It’s all set up for a heavyweight cardio bout, Tybura winning the final rounds by virtue volume and effort.
Ryan Bader – Fedor Emelianenko Ends In Round 1, -190
Fedor has not seen the second round of a fight since his 2014 decision “win” over Fabio Maldonado. That is six total fights in Bellator with a collective time of less than 12 minutes. This man does not get paid by the hour. He’s in there to settle things, on way or the other, as soon as possible. Get or get got, baby. Last time it took Bader 35 seconds, even if we double that, it’s still a comfortable first round finish.
Johnny Eblen by Decision, +100
Eblen takes on Anatoly Tokov, who is highly-regarded in what will be the most exciting fight of the weekend. This fight rules and it’s a close one, but I favor Eblen’s athleticism and wrestling to make the difference. That being said, Eblen is not much of a finisher, with six decision wins in eight Bellator fights, and Tokov has only been stopped once in his career. This should go 25 minutes, and I favor Eblen to get his hand raised.
Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC
Parlay of the Week
Da Un Jung, -245
This three-leg parlay has fighters with distinct athletic advantages over each other. Jung is a better wrestler than Devin Clark, and Clark is a good athlete. Jung will stuff takedowns and light Clark up on the feet.
Doo Ho Choi, -190
“The Korean Superboy” is back! It’s been three years since last we saw Choi and almost seven since we’ve seen him win. Choi used to be an amazing athlete, so I believe that he still has it. Kyle Nelson is a good test to see if Choi still has it, and I believe he does.
Jun Yong Park, -215
I love the Iron Turtle so much. Park is not a great athlete, and maybe not even a great one. Park is a good fighter, but he has a lot of discipline and stamina. Denis Tiuliulin, however, is the UFC’s slowest man. Park is a winner, no matter how ugly it may be.
Parlay these three bets together for +214 odds
Photo by Harry How/Getty Images
Long Shot of the Week
Derrick Lewis by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 3, +1800
Do you remember Third Round Lewis? Pepperidge Farm remembers. Back in 2018, Lewis knocked out both Marcin Tybura and Alexander Volkov in the third round, and there was a belief he might become a mythical fighter, like Third Round Yoel Romero or Motivated B.J. Penn. Well, I’m bringing it back. I’ve already run down why I think the KO is happening, and the third round seems very fitting. Spivac from all the takedowns will feel tired and Lewis, a slimmer, more fitter Lewis will profit.
Wrap Up
We had a rough go of things at UFC 283, that nearly didn’t matter because we were seconds away from cashing the Long Shot. Close is not a factor in hand grenades and horseshoes. Time to get back on track.
Enjoy the fighting, luck and gambling responsibly until next week!
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Source: https://www.mmafighting.com/2023/2/3/23583401/bellator-290-ufc-vegas-68-gambling-preview-can-fedor-emelianenko-derrick-lewis-punch-way-upset-wins?rand=96749
