The UFC completes its 12-event summer on Saturday with UFC 278, which takes place at the Vivint Arena in Salt Lake City. In the main event, welterweight champ and No. 2 ranked pound-for-pound fighter Kamaru Usman puts his title on the line against Leon Edwards in a rematch of a 2015 battle that saw Usman win by unanimous decision. Since that first meeting, neither man lost. Usman has established himself as the greatest fighter of all time and Edwards continues to work hard to bring his belt back home to England.
Let’s take a look at what each man needs to do to win this marquee matchup, any X-factors in play, and ultimately what will happen on Saturday night.
Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC
Paths to Victory for Kamaru Usman at UFC 278
He is unquestionably the 2nd-greatest welterweight ever and his popularity in the GOAT discussion continues to grow. Thus far, he’s done so on the back of outstanding wrestling, a good jab, and some newfound power on the feet. Edwards will need them all.
Let’s start with the grappling. Usman was a standout collegiate wrestler before jumping to MMA, and for much of his career, grappling was the centerpiece of his game. “The Nigerian Nightmare” has still never officially been taken down in the UFC, and he’s completed a whopping 50 of his own during his tenure, six of those against Edwards in their first encounter. Edwards’ skills in this area have improved significantly since then. However, Usman should still hold a clear advantage in the clinch where Edwards can be smothered, worn down and looking for takedowns. Although Usman may not be the best top-position player, his control is exceptional, so he will likely win the round with one takedown.
Lately, though, Usman has moved away from the wrestling, or at least not made it a strategic priority. Instead, the champion has discovered he’s not a bad boxer, using a piston-like jab to knock out Gilbert Burns to tune up Colby Covington in their rematch. The jab is one of the most under-utilized weapons in MMA, and in many ways, Usman’s is the straw that stirs the drink for everything else he does, allowing him to score points at range while opening up bigger shots. It’s those bigger shots which might be his best path to victory against Edwards.
On paper, Edwards is the superior technical striker, and that’s true in reality, but there are two major flaws in his striking. First, he lacks natural power, so while he can outpoint opponents, he rarely has the juice to seriously hurt them on the feet. While this is not a major problem, it is his second issue. Despite his skill and abilities, he can sometimes be shockingly careless with his defense. Everyone remembers Nate Diaz hurting Edwards in the final minute of their fight. But most forget that repeatedly during the bout, Edwards got hit with big counters and right hands because he left himself open. Nate Diaz doesn’t have the one-hitter-quitter power to seriously punish him for it (though he almost did), but Usman does. Usman also has some natural abilities to respond to pocket exchanges. This means that he might be able put Edwards out of his misery if he is patient.
Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC
Paths to victory for Leon Edwards at UFC 278
Although Usman’s path to victory boils down to “do what you love”, Edwards’s approach is more complex. He must be able to take away his best qualities and not do things that aren’t good for him. Edwards needs to recognize that his chances of finishing Usman are low, and thus, he has to be prepared to fight near flawlessly for 25 minutes. One mistake is the death knell for his title aspirations.
That also means that footwork needs to be a huge priority for Edwards. For all his athleticism, Usman isn’t much of a shot-wrestler, preferring to cut the cage and initiate a clinch or shoot reactively. Edwards must not be backed up against the fence. If possible, Edwards should take the initiative to make Usman retreat. The champion is much worse on the back foot, and if Edwards doesn’t lunge in foolishly, Usman has a substantially lower chance of scoring the takedowns he wants.
So, let’s say you’re Leon Edwards and you’ve managed to create a kickboxing fight, in space, where you’re minding your Ps and Qs — how do you win? You need to do some bodywork, jabs and low kicks.
The old boxing adage is that you shouldn’t hook with a hooker. But you can jab with a jabber, and Edwards needs to do that, at least to keep Usman honest. Edwards is quick and has a strong jab. He should make use of it and double or triple it. Instead of trying to get Usman taken down, give Usman some thought.
While the jab is a necessity for Edwards, it’s the low kicks and body work that can win him the fight. Usman’s lead leg is a big target, especially as he has somewhat plodding footwork, and against Diaz, Edwards proved he is more than capable of exploiting a target like that. Against Usman, it also has the added benefit of being a weapon outside the range of Usman’s jab, and since Usman rarely kicks, it’s the weapon with the longest range in this particular fight. Chop down the leg and Usman’s movement slows, the power diminishes, and the takedowns become more difficult.
Similarly, in a fight where you probably won’t finish your opponent, investing in body work pays big dividends later. Plus, body work in general disincentivizes takedowns, and one of the more effective ways to counter a jab is using your own to the body. Usman has never shown major cardio flaws, but he’s 35 years old, and he did noticeably fade against Colby Covington. Edwards’ technical skills can help Usman to fall a bit from the champ if the explosive drops off a little.
X-Factors
As I see it, there are two main wild cards at play for this welterweight title. The first is Usman’s mentality heading into this bout. Over the past year or so, the welterweight champion has called for fights outside the purview of his weight class. It was Usman challenging Jake Paul. He then tried unsuccessfully to get a fight with Canelo alvarez in boxing. Recenty, the “Nigerian Nightmare”, has made overtures to get a shot at the light-heavyweight belt.
Usman is, of course, saying all the right things heading into this bout. But the question lingers on if his focus is 100 percent on Edwards. Because if it’s not, we’ve seen far more unlikely upsets take place.
The second, and arguably the more concerning X-factor in this fight is Usman’s age and general wear-and-tear. Usman is 35 years old and has dealt with lingering knee issues for years. He’s also been plagued by knee issues for years. Gilbert Burns came very close to stopping him in his most recent fights. Although Usman is an outstanding athlete, at some point the tread will wear off and a fighter must have a wide range of tools available to him. Usman has those tools in the grappling department, but if he’s dropped a few MPH from his standing fastball, and Edwards can keep it that way, that could be a big issue for the champion.
Prediction
Although Leon Edwards is equipped to win the fight or make it competitive, there’s one problem with his selection: Edwards is not a finisher. So he has to pitch a perfect game for 25 minutes against one of the best to ever step in the cage to get his hand raised. That’s an incredibly tall order, especially for someone who has also been known to occasionally have mental lapses. Edwards is doing very well with his technical striking. However, Usman won’t be able to hurt Edwards on the feet.
Kamaru Usman def. Leon Edwards by TKO at 3:28 of Round 4.
