Amanda Nunes is at a crossroads.
In the main event of UFC 277 on Saturday, “The Lioness” has the opportunity to all but erase the bitter taste of a loss to Julianna Pena, a loss that cost her the UFC bantamweight title, a seven-year undefeated streak, and possibly her case to be recognized unequivocally as the greatest women’s fighter of all time.
If Nunes runs through Pena like she expected and has done to many of her challengers, December’s upset may be remembered as an important blip in a otherwise flawless career. If Pena wins again, suddenly one of MMA’s greatest upsets will look more like a passing of the torch to a rival that has Nunes’ number any day of the week. Suffice to say, there’s a lot more on the line in this rematch than a shiny piece of metal.
The co-main event features two of the world’s best flyweights competing for an interim title with undisputed champion Deiveson Figueiredo temporarily out of the picture. On one side, former champion Brandon Moreno looks to capture gold again and set up a fourth fight with his Brazilian rival; on the other, Kai Kara-France looks to avenge a 2019 loss to Moreno and bring another title back home to New Zealand’s juggernaut gym, City Kickboxing.
In other main card action, heavyweight veteran Derrick Lewis stands in the way of Sergei Pavlovich claiming a top 10 spot, Alexandre Pantoja and Alex Perez meet in a flyweight battle that could set up another challenger for Figueiredo’s title, and Magomed Ankalaev can potentially secure a championship opportunity with a standout performance against light heavyweight stalwart Anthony Smith.
What: UFC 277
Where: American Airlines Center in Dallas
When: Saturday, July 30. The four-fight early prelims begin on ESPN+ at 6 p.m. ET, followed by the four-fight prelims on ABC, ESPN, and ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET. The five-fight main card begins at 10 p.m. ET and is available exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view.
(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in MMA Fighting Global Rankings)
Julianna Pena (1) vs. Amanda Nunes (2)
Is Amanda Nunes now at a fresh start or is this the beginning of her end?
Nunes has spoken openly about being satisfied with everything she’s done in her extraordinary career, going as far as to say in a June 2020 interview that she was contemplating retirement. Two divisions have won her UFC title. She wants to coach someday. She is a mom. She’s happy. And if there’s one thing we know in the fight game, it’s that contentedness can lead to calamity when the time comes to step back into that cage.
None of those factors are why Julianna Pena beat Nunes in their first meeting. Pena is a great wrestler with a lot of confidence and an endless supply of gas. All of those strengths were on display when she upset Nunes and there’s no reason to believe she can’t do it again, this time equipped with the knowledge that her strategy worked not just in theory, but in reality.
Skill-for-skill, we know Nunes is a better fighter than Pena. She has the edge in knockout power and she’s a better grappler, so I’m willing to buy the argument that she didn’t perform to the best of her abilities at UFC 269. Ideally, Nunes viewed that loss as a valuable learning experience and we see a renewed fire in her.
I’ve just seen too many Nunes wins to count her out and while I think she’ll be more methodical than dominant on Saturday with an emphasis on conserving her energy, that version of Nunes is good enough to beat Pena. “The Venezuelan Vixen” will give it everything she’s got to beat Nunes again and while I expect her to give Nunes hell for 25 minutes, I also expect Nunes to get the better of a competitive decision.
Nunes, #AndAgain.
Pick: Nunes
Brandon Moreno (2) vs. Kai Kara-France (T4)
Speaking of #AndAgain, I’m liking Brandon Moreno’s chances of becoming a champion once more.
Kai Kara-France is looking better than ever, but Moreno’s performance has improved tremendously since the first time they met. He had an advantage then. Moreno is a difficult opponent due to his aggression and the variety of his attacks. This one is more difficult for him.
Kara-France’s right hand is strong and he has great timing. Askar Askarov is one of the top flyweight wrestlers, and he showed great takedown defense. Kara-France was ready to do some wrestling if Moreno wants. These two are closely matched and while Moreno won a clear decision the first time around, 10 more minutes with which to work could change the complexion of this matchup.
The safe choice is to choose the fighter who has done this championship dance before, and that would be Moreno. Actually, three times. This is because he has the title fight experience I need to feel confident that he will beat Kara-France yet again. However, it’s also a sign that we may see Kara-France compete for a UFC championship belt.
Moreno by decision.
Pick: Moreno
Derrick Lewis (6) vs. Sergei Pavlovich
At the risk of being the subject of his next roast, I’m just going to say it: I don’t think Derrick Lewis can beat high-level strikers anymore.
Here are Lewis’ recent wins: Chris Daukaus (Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist), Curtis Blaydes (vastly improved hands, but a wrestler at heart), Aleksei Oleinik (submission specialist with an aversion to stand-up), and Ilir Latifi (solid boxer, but he hasn’t threatened to knock anyone out in years). We know Lewis can punch out over-matched competition. We don’t know if he can win a back-and-forth battle on the feet anymore.
We don’t yet know the extent of Sergei Pavlovich’s striking, however there are plenty of signs that this muscular Russian is capable. Twelve knockouts, all in the first round, that’s a recipe for success against the often slow-starting Lewis. If Pavlovich finds the timing early, Lewis could be in serious danger of taking his third knockout loss in his past four fights.
Lewis needs to work harder to make Pavlovich fall at the fence and should also look for ways to get him off his back. One thing we know for sure is that Lewis’ ground-and-pound is as deadly as ever. Pavlovich is a plus-athlete with a wrestling background, so much like Lewis himself he can probably just power out of bottom position, but ground fighting is a good way for Lewis to do damage to his rangier opponent.
Pavlovich sits just outside the top 15 of the MMA Fighting Global Rankings and he’s poised for a big jump up at Lewis’ expense. This one is his knockout.
Pick: Pavlovich
Alexandre Pantoja (7) vs. Alex Perez (8)
The flyweight division is ridiculously deep right now.
You could slot Alex Perez and Alexandre Pantoja into an interim title bout. While they may not have the same name recognition as Kara-France and Moreno, their competition is equally high. Perez has already fought for a UFC title — albeit as a replacement — and Pantoja owns two wins over Moreno (one from their season of The Ultimate Fighter).
I have Pantoja sliding into that next contender spot with a win over Perez on Saturday. Pantoja is quick and has solid wrestling skills, which might cause Perez problems. However, Pantoja’s throwing ability and jiu jitsu are exceptional. Pantoja can’t be trusted in this fight.
The other factor to consider here is that Perez is susceptible to submissions while Pantoja has never been finished. If you like this one to end inside the distance, then Pantoja is the pick all the way. I see these two having some lively exchanges in the standup and on the ground in Round 1 before Pantoja pulls away and finds a submission in Round 2.
Pick: Pantoja
Magomed Ankalaev (7) vs. Anthony Smith (8)
I get the whole “Anthony Smith is going to force Magomed Ankalaev to bring the dog out” angle of this matchup and why that should favor Smith, but I think Ankalaev is up to the challenge.
Keep in mind that Ankalaev, a strong counter-striker, uses intelligent movement to avoid fighting. Smith may have the plan to slow down the proceedings, but Ankalaev is able to stop it from becoming a fight. His precision and counterwork will deter Smith from pushing the pace.
As the fight goes on, that’s where Smith’s big game experience comes into play. When Smith says that Ankalaev is not intimidating, you know it’s true. He won’t hesitate to take chances to end Ankalaev’s 8-fight winning streak. Smith is Ankalaev’s most dangerous opponent: He’s highly skilled and motivated with more to lose than gain.
To be the No.1 contender, Ankalaev must still make a statement. 1 contender and while I’m picking him to overcome adversity and win a decision against Smith, I doubt that he dominates in such a way that the matchmakers bump him to the front of the line.
Pick: Ankalaev
Preliminaries
Alex Morono def. Matthew Semelsberger
Drew Dober def. Rafael Alves
Don’Tale Mayes def. Hamdy Abdelwahab
Drakkar Klose def. Rafa Garcia
Michael Morales def. Adam Fugitt
Ji Yeon Kim def. Joselyne Edwards
Nicolae Negumereanu def. Ihor Potieria
Orion Cosce def. Blood Diamond
