The UFC train keeps right on rolling this weekend with UFC Long Island on Saturday evening. The main event is a featherweight bout between Brian Ortega and Yair Rodriguez that may well determine the next challenger to Alexander Volkanovski‘s 145-pound title. The main event is the most talked about, but there are many compelling matches across multiple divisions that will be worth your attention. Let’s take a look at the best ones to place wagers on.
As always, all odds are courtesy of our friends at DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
Straight Bets
Yair Rodriguez +155
I’m going to be honest with you, this bet is as much about my dislike of Ortega as it is about my belief in Rodriguez. Ortega is the most difficult kind of fighter for me to assess, because in practically every single one of his fights, he loses the majority of the bout before pulling off an epic comeback. I continue to be surprised when he does it, because it simply shouldn’t happen with the regularity that it does.
*Ortega’s striking defense is heavily dependent on his great chin. His offense may sometimes seem lukewarm until he turns into the greatest predatory damn grappler of the sport. Given that, I always believe he’s going to lose, and this time is no different. Rodriguez is a better, more varied striker and seems to be finally becoming the fighter that everyone predicted he would. It’s not surprising that Ortega does the Brian Ortega thing and wins. But at underdog odds, give me “El Pantera.”
Ricky Simon, +145
This was one of the easiest bets on the card for me to make. Jack Shore is a great prospect. I also believe that he’s a good fighter. Not knowing how to lose in MMA matters a lot. He should not be considered this favorite. This is the definition of a 50-50 fight. Both men push a high pace, both men chain wrestle and can grapple their asses off, and both men appear to still have their best years in front of them. Although I don’t really know which man will win, at these odds the value of Simon is clear.
Herbert Burns, +170
This is another value bet. God love Bill Algeo, but he really shouldn’t be a -200 favorite over someone as talented as Burns. Algeo is certainly the better striker of the two, and if he can keep this fight standing, he will very likely win. That’s a huge if for a man who’s given up 22 takedowns in five fights inside the UFC. Yes, Algeo is pretty tough to hold down, but Burns is an accomplished BJJ player and a serious threat once it hits the mat. This line also offers some value, as Algeo has suffered six submissions in his career.
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Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
Prop Bets
Miesha Tate by Decision, -110
Betting on a fighter making her divisional debut is always a risky proposition, but in this case, I’m going to make an exception. Miesha Tate isn’t just any fighter, and Lauren Murphy is not exactly the type of fighter who punishes you on the margins. Tate is the former bantamweight champion and coming off a hard-fought loss to Ketlen Vieira, who it turns out is pretty good at fighting. Tate is also the stronger striker, better grappler and better athlete of them both. Tate looks absolutely shredged heading into the fight so I’m excited for Tate to raise her hand. That being said, Tate has never been the best finisher, and for whatever deficiencies Murphy may have, she’s tougher than a $2 steak. Only one person has ever finished her, and that was Valentina Shevchenko in the fourth round. I think she can last 15 minutes with Tate.
Matt Schnell vs. Su Mudaerji Under 2. 5 Rounds, -150
I got this bet directly from my cohost on No Bets Barred, Conner Burks, who convinced me that despite all logic and reason, betting the Under on a flyweight bout was a smart choice, and he was able to do so for a few reasons. This bet would have won in all six of Schnell’s fights and two of Mudaerji’s. Second, the style matchup here seems to favor a finish. The guys are out there working hard and Schnell has a questionable chin. Mudaerji is defending his submission. One of these men will get the job done.
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Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
Parlay of the Week
Shane Burgos, -165
My general stance on parlays (aside from thinking they are bad and you shouldn’t do them) is that I only parlay bets when they are around -250 or higher odds. At that point, the payoff on a straight bet is so much smaller, you can just tie a few of those together and shortcut the wager. However, I’m breaking my rule this week, because if there is one undeniably certainty in life, it’s that Burgos is beating Charles Jourdain this weekend.
Here’s a little stat for you, Burgos is 6-0 when fighting in the state of New York. You know where Long Island is? New York. He’s in New York this weekend, baby. Add in that he’s the more diverse striker and throws more volume, and this man is moving to 7-0 on Long Island.
Lauren Murphy vs. Miesha Tate Over 2. 5 Rounds, -335
*]Neither of the women mentioned is a great finisher, but both women can be very durable. In fact, in their collective 48 fights, this bet would only have failed in eight of them. In fact, the most recent time Under 2. 5 Rounds hit for either woman was when Tate lost the bantamweight title to Amanda Nunes, back in 2016. Before that, you’d have to back to 2013 when Murphy was fighting on the regional scene.
Parlay these two bets together for +108 odds.
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Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
Long Shot(s) of the Week
Michelle Waterson To Win By Split or Majority Decision, +1400
In the co-main, Michelle Waterson will face Amanda Lemos. It’s a fight that it is difficult to predict. Waterson is getting old, has lost more than she’s won lately, and will be significantly smaller than Lemos, but Lemos hasn’t looked very good in recent outings either. She barely squeaked out a split decision over Angela Hill and then got run over by Jessica Andrade in April. This fight is a possible wild one. Hill has won split decisions twice in her past so I am willing to take a chance on it.
Brian Ortega to win by Submission in Round 3, +1800
All of the Ortega By Submission + Round props can be very juicy, but I thought I would give it a try because, like I stated above, this man is a master at winning out of nothing. He’s also done it in four rounds, without counting Volkanovski’s near submission in round 3. This is worth a small shot.
Wrap Up
Make sure you check out No Bets Barred this week, as it’s quite possibly our best episode yet. Other than that, enjoy the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!
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