Islam Makhachev’s path to a UFC title shot just took a strange turn.
The plan was straightforward. All Makhachev had to do was defeat Beneil Dariush, which would’ve given him his first win over a top-5 ranked opponent (Makhachev and Dariush are currently tied at No. 4 in MMA Fighting’s Global Rankings) and a 10th consecutive victory. Here we are, Charles Oliveira or Justin Gaethje.
Unfortunately for both fighters, Dariush was forced to withdraw from Saturday’s UFC Vegas 49 main event due to an ankle injury, and now stepping into his place is veteran lightweight Bobby Green, fresh off of a one-sided decision win over Nasrat Haqparast at UFC 271 two weeks ago. Instead of facing another competitor in a highly-stakes bout, Makhachev is now up against an uncompromising cagey fighter with no stakes.
Even if Makhachev runs through Green as he has most of his competition, will it be enough to vault him into that lightweight title shot, or does he need another statement win? And if Green pulls off the upset, it could turn the whole division upside down.
Also, Misha Cirkunov has another chance at his first win as a middleweight when he faces Wellington Turman. Ji Yeon Kim takes on Priscila Chachoeira in a fight featuring two flyweights looking for a win. Lightweights Arman Takyan and Joel Alvarez will be fighting to end their four-fight winning streaks. Contender Series prospect Armen Petrosyan is making his UFC debut against Gregory Rodrigues.
What: UFC Vegas 49
Where : UFC APEX Las Vegas
When: Saturday, Feb. 26. The six-fight preliminary card begins on ESPN+ at 4 p.m. ET, followed by a five-fight main card on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET.
Islam Makhachev vs. Bobby Green
Bobby Green can win this fight!
OK, that might not be the boldest claim since we’re talking about MMA and it’s not like Green is some WCW Thunder jobber, but he’s not far from it in the eyes of many, at least if the early reaction to the matchup and current odds are any indication. It seems that Green, despite being barely an apostrophe in the Islam Makhachev story is destined for a UFC championship win.
You have to wonder whether Makhachev wouldn’t have preferred waiting for a better-ranked opponent in the next year, or sitting on the sidelines. He’s doing the UFC a favor by not leaving them high and dry with a Fight Night card that’s already devoid of star power.
He also likely views Green as a more difficult fight than Beneil Dariush. Green is able to take down Makhachev with good defense. Without a camp that focuses solely on Makhachev’s preparation, one can assume his wrestling will not be as effective as it should be. The takedowns will come early and often, and Green is going to spend plenty of time on his back.
However, Green is a problem for anyone on the feet and he’s shown that he knows how to survive on the ground. He doesn’t panic when Makhachev threatens with submissions or scoring with ground and pound. Makhachev will have to work hard to stop him. It’s a lot to ask of Green to keep that defense up for 25 minutes on a two-week turnaround, though.
What I see happening is Green putting a scare in Makhachev early, catching Makhachev off-balance with some sharp counters and combinations before Makhachev finds the range in Round 2. Once Makhachev cuts off the cage, he’ll have Green right where he wants him and the takedowns will soon be unavoidable.
Makhachev per decision.
Pick: Makhachev
Misha Cirkunov vs. Wellington Turman
This is about a friendly of a matchup as you could make for these fighters given that they’re both inclined to grapple. We could end up with some very lukewarm striking if that happens. Get ready!
With that grim prediction in mind, who has the edge if they end up standing and banging? Although his numerous knockout defeats are a discrediting story, I have always believed Misha Cirkunov could be a good striker. He’ll be able to reach and hit the ground with his size, which will make him a formidable striker. And if you consider his natural power, it could even surprise you.
That or he and Wellington Turman will feint and clinch for three rounds and this will be another reminder why you can’t just throw any two fighters in the penultimate bout of a card and call it a co-main event. Edge to Cirkunov.
Pick: Cirkunov
Ji Yeon Kim vs. Priscila Cachoeira
After having to face Molly McCann, an aggressive Molly McCann during a loss, Ji Yeon Kim now has another pressure fighter. Priscila isn’t as good as McCann, but her gloves have more power.
Although I have questioned the idea of putting a match that is likely to be a Loser Leaves Town on an UFC main-card, this fight has the potential for being a great standup bout. Neither woman is afraid to let their hands go, and if Cachoeira can lure Kim into a brawl, she could actually put her down.
It’s this power edge that makes me gravitate towards Cachoeira. Kim might make it interesting by adding some takedowns to the mix, although I doubt her ability to control the fight with her grappling skills enough. We’ll likely see many uneventful underhook fights against the cage, with Cachoeira winning on the separates. Kim will have to prove that she is capable of doing enough damage to win the fight. I don’t think she is.
Cachoeira per decision.
Pick: Cachoeira
Arman Tsarukyan vs. Joel Alvarez
Outside of the main event, this is the fight that has everyone talking, as it features two talented fighters who could be factors in the loaded lightweight division going forward (especially if Joel Alvarez can consistently make weight).
Just 25 years old, Arman Tsarukyan is the real deal as far as prospects go. His wrestling is outstanding and his striking is rapidly catching up to his primary discipline. He’s not just looking to set up his takedowns with his standup game, he’s becoming a legitimate threat to put down solid competition as Christos Giagos learned the hard way. He’s a nightmare opponent right now for any lightweight outside of the top 20.
Any lightweight except possibly Alvarez. Alvarez, like Tsarukyan is beginning to improve his kickboxing and his submission skills. A towering 155er, Alvarez uses every inch of those powerful limbs to set up chokes and joint locks. He is not someone that Tsarukyan can just take down and lay in his guard. Alvarez can be more dangerous on his back than his feet.
A tactical mixing of the martial arts is in order if Tsarukyan is to topple his taller foe, and I think he’s up to the task. Alvarez might find his long frame to be detrimental as he has a lot to defend while Tsarukyan drives in to get those hips. Look for Tsarukyan to use his takedowns to break Alvarez’s rhythm and set up ground-and-pound opportunities. As long as he minds those long legs of Alvarez, he should do enough over three rounds to win on points.
Pick: Tsarukyan
Armen Petrosyan vs. Gregory Rodrigues
As enjoyable as it is to see Gregory Rodrigues throw hands with such glee, he may want to leave the boxing at home for this one.
Armen Petrosyan is a talented striker and has serious finishing instincts. Rodrigues will make mistakes or be careless, and he’ll wait for him to do so. One good opening and Rodrigues will get lit up, as Petrosyan doesn’t just go for one-shot bombs; instead, he creates explosive sequences by stringing together all of his techniques.
Rodrigues has elite jiu jitsu, which is a good thing. I have Rodrigues as one of my sleepers at 185 pounds, so I’m all in on him shutting down Petrosyan in his debut. As long as he doesn’t go full Jorge Gurgel, Rodrigues will eventually close the distance, get Petrosyan down, and take his back. It’s only a matter time before he gets a submission.
Pick: Rodrigues
Preliminaries
Ignacio Bahamondes def. Rong Zhu
Josiane Nunes def. Ramona Pascual
Terrance McKinney def. Fares Ziam
Alejandro Perez def. Jonathan Martinez
Ramiz Brahimaj def. Michael Gillmore
Victor Altamirano def. Carlos Hernandez
